Final Four: Mapping The Rosters

A classic championship game between Kansas and Memphis brought the 2007-08 season to a close in proper fashion last night. The Jayhawks' 75-68 win came in the seventh overtime game in NCAA championship game history. [box score]

When you look back at this tournament a few years from now, Wisconsin's exit will not appear as poor as it seemed at the time. When Davidson hung with the eventual national champion until the final shot, the whole Midwest Region got a boost. If you can't win, you hope the team that beats you was the best in the country. In UW's case, this was close enough. From one angle, you could make an argument--albeit a shaky one--that Wisconsin lost to the second-best team in the tournament this year.

In days leading up to the title game, I started thinking back to a recent New York Times piece on the composition of Wisconsin's roster (thanks to Jon Linder for pointing it out). The map got me thinking both about the direction UW's program is headed and also about what it takes to build a truly elite, NCAA Championship-level squad these days.

Wisconsin has concentrated traditionally on snagging the best players from the state and filling in needed pieces from its midwestern neighbors. Bo Ryan has placed a premium on finding players who will best fit his swing offense and embrace the team concept. It's easy to fill a roster with that kind of players when your legendary head coach has inspired half of the high school coaches in the state to run his system.

I have constructed some player origin maps to show how this type of roster-building strategy appears spatially. Almost every program is going to fill extra roster spots with walk-ons from around the state, so I concentrated on mapping the scholarship athletes. Though we have been able to cherry-pick some talent from Minnesota lately, the 2007-08 roster was still heavily local:

Now look at Monday night's title game match-up. See where Kansas and Memphis are pulling players from? All over. Compare these maps and apparent strategies with Wisconsin's more regional map:

Both school's rosters featured scholarship players from 10 different states this season. Kansas has natural ties to the heartland, but nearly every corner of the country is represented. Memphis' turf seems restricted only to anything east of the Mississippi River. These are two of the nation's premier programs which can basically pick and choose the recruits they want. Similarly, top-flight prospects desire to play for these schools, no matter where they grew up.

The question is, will Bo Ryan change his recruiting. Does he agree with the pessimists that decry a lack of athleticism on his team and feel the need to look outside Wisconsin's borders to find it? More likely is that (1)the recent classes of high school seniors in Wisconsin have been less talented than usual and (2)the Badgers continue to raise their profile nationally in the minds of prep hoop stars.

This fall, five new freshmen will join the Badgers, none of which will be from Wisconsin. The departing senior class this spring consists of four in-state contributors (3 scholarship, 1 walk-on). In just one year, Wisconsin has added three new states to it's recruiting footprint* to up the total to eight. As I mentioned before, this is probably more of a drastic blip than an official trend. If the team keeps winning 30 games a year, though, the opportunities to pick and choose become even greater and more frequent.

*This map assumes 2008 recruit Ryan Evans will occupy Kevin Gullikson's 2008-09 scholarship.

Round 5 (& 6) data

With all the Big Ten teams long-gone and no other 3-seeds left to compare to Wisconsin's run, there is nothing left to track but my pathetic bracket. When North Carolina and UCLA were both eliminated at the Final Four, the debacle was complete.

My picks: 37/63 (58.7%) Round 5 (& 6): 0-3

Badgers Add To '08 Class: Ryan Evans

Rumor became reality tonight as Ryan Evans officially announced that he will become a Wisconsin Badger. Evans, a 6'6" wing out of Hamilton High School in Chandler, AZ, is the fifth player in the UW's incoming 2008 recruiting class.

The Wisconsin State Journal reports Evans was chomping at the bit to commit to Bo Ryan's team. He was finally rewarded with a full scholarship, according to Rivals.com. Evans is reportedly a bit raw offensively, but part of that can be attributed to his rapid growth spurt over the past two years.

According to MaxPreps.com, Evans averaged over 18 ppg & 7 rpg to lead Hamilton in both categories. The Huskies compiled a 21-11 record this past season, bowing to Phoenix St. Mary's in the AIA's Class 5A-Division 1 semifinals.

Allotting the last open schollie to Evans means a lot of talented players closer to home will not become Badgers. The complaints about not getting Jamil Wilson might continue on for years, but more disconcerting would be the extremely large class size next year. Signing five players for 2008 means the team will only have two scholarships to offer in 2010, which appears to be another very deep recruiting class. Evening the numbers out by using a few redshirts would only lock up those scholarships an additional year.

With the addition, however, UW could field an entire starting lineup down the road from the Class of 2008 alone.

Perhaps because of the sheer distance between Madison and the Phoenix area, Evans is the most obscure Badger recruit. His recruitment arc was similar to that of Mike Bruesewitz. He was an unknown commodity, until suddenly, a quiet but solid internet buzz grew to indicate an impending commitment.

Video | Photos (Recruiting Planet)

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Brian Butch finished with 9 points in the DiGiorno's College All-Star Game played last Friday at the Final Four, though he did not shoot particularly well. At least he was invited. He did nail a couple of 3-pointers. You can see one (sort of) in CBS' video highlights.

Prospect Profile: Ryan Evans

Ryan Evans, F
6'6" :: 185 lbs.
Class of 2008
Chandler (AZ) Hamilton HS

Rankings
Scout: 2 Stars * *
Rivals: NR
ESPN/Scouts Inc. grade: NR

Recent Press
5/5: Former DV guard Evans -- now of Hamilton -- en route to Wisconsin - Ahwautukee Foothills News
4/30: Evans Writes His Own Story - SportsBubbler.com
4/17: Arizona prep's potential impresses Badgers coaches - Cap Times
4/16: Basketball signs one more for 2008 - UWBadgers.com

The Verbal
Badgers power forward with Arizona standout - JSOnline (4/7/08)
Hamilton's Evans commits to Wisconsin - Arizona Republic (4/8/08)
Badgers add fifth recruit - WiSJ (4/7/08)

The Hype
Hamilton advances to semifinals for 1st time - East Valley Tribune (2/24/08)

Video
Highlights: Ryan Evans upload (2007-08) - Rivals
Game: Hamilton 65, Gilbert 61 (1/12/07)* - APN Sports
*ed note: preview - download free software to view full video

Stats
MaxPreps: 2007-08

Photos

On the Stove Top: Links (4/3)

As we delve into the off-season, content is harder to come by. Thus, a collection of links to catch up on the week's happenings ...

- If you have time, read Monday's article by Rob Hernandez on Jonte Flowers in the Wisconsin State Journal. The whole story was well done, but the Michael Flowers quote rehashed by Hernandez is what stuck out to me:

"Good leadership produces winners,'' Michael said. "But great leadership produces other great leaders. That's what I think of Jonte."

Some might have heard a variation of that quote at some point, but I had not. That shows a great level of respect was present in the Flowers household as all those brothers developed into great athletes ... no doubt fueled by some scrappy driveway pickup games. Now, Jonte finds himself with an opportunity to play basketball professionally, his first step being the Portsmouth Invitational. The same invite led Kam Taylor to a professional contract in Spain; let's see if Flowers can do better.

- The St. Paul Pioneer Press named Jordan Taylor its 2007-08 Player of the Year this week. Will Minnesota's Mr. Basketball be Taylor's next accolade? He cannot arrive in Madison soon enough.

- Speaking of next year's new comers, one rumor gaining steam this week is that Phoenix-area wing Ryan Evans will be joining the Badgers in 2008 as well. Evans, whose father played at UW, seems capable and willing to walk-on to the program, but the intriguing part of this rumor is exactly when and for how long Evans might be paying his own way. Would he in fact be given only a one-year free ride his freshman year, thereby "holding" a scholarship for Jamil Wilson starting in '09, or be a preferred walk-on for a few years with the possibility of earning a schollie down the line. An ArizonaPreps.com article referenced on the Wishoops.net message board seems to be the source of the speculation.

- The collegiate season will culminate this weekend, but the summer high school circuit is already underway. Wishoops.net is running a series of previews for some of the state's best amateur programs, including the following:
:: Wisconsin Playground Warriors 6U (feat. C Evan Anderson, Sussex Hamilton G Kameron Cerroni & Milw. Lutheran G T.J. Kadima)
:: DTA 16U (feat. Milwaukee-area talent like G Flavien Davis & Milw. Custer PF Calvin Godfrey)
:: Tosa Bandits 17U (feat. Wauwatosa East G Keondre Gholston & the Lawson brothers of Racine St. Catherine's)

-Snubbed by the NCAA Tournament committee, Ohio State marched through the NIT and dominated UMass in the second half to claim its own postseason title Thursday night. Small consolation for the Big Ten.

Assuming Kosta Koufos goes pro, Ohio State will be facing the loss of its three top scorers again this offseason. The Buckeyes do have a nice, young nucleus on the perimeter in David Lighty, Evan Turner and Jon Diebler. But Dallas Lauderdale and McDonald's All-American B.J. Mullens are no Greg Odens.

- If you are a glutton for punishment, take another gander at the numbers from Davidson's demolition of Wisconsin in the Sweet 16. From a defensive efficiency standpoint, the game was far and away UW's worst of the year, allowing 1.34+ points-per-possession. The 18-2 advantage for Davidson on fast breaks sheds some light on how that happened.

- Camp Lambeau came to the defense of the swing offense. I myself think the offense--as espoused by Bo Ryan--has some inherent shortcomings, but that discussion is for another day.

Tom Crean Finally Gets His Wish

If you have not heard yet, Tom Crean will be the next head coach at Indiana. The move allows Crean to crawl out from under the shadow of Bo Ryan and Wisconsin's large state university and return to his Big Ten roots at another basketball-first school. Now that Marquette has officially confirmed the report, how will this affect Wisconsin?

As a recruiting nerd, the first thing that jumped into my mind was how this might aid in Wisconsin's recruitment of Jamil Wilson. While it's true that Crean will keep recruiting Wilson for Indiana (and offer plenty of playing time), I don't see him following "Tan Tommy" to this new locale. If any place in Indiana has a shot, it would be Purdue, but even that might be a long shot.

The biggest thing Marquette has going for it with any Racine recruit is proximity and nothing has changed on that front. Depending on who becomes the next Marquette coach, I think the Golden Eagles should still be considered the front-runners. Crean's departure cannot hurt the Badgers' chances though. A best-case scenario involving Wilson would be if the coaching changes cleared up his mind enough to make an announcement earlier than the March 2009 date he has previously indicated. Even if he didn't choose Wisconsin, getting that storyline out of the way would benefit the Badgers.

Only time will tell if Marquette shifts its recruiting focus to a more in-state approach under a new head coach, as opposed to the regional, Big East-conscious style of Crean. There are plenty of great coaches that might find the Marquette job a step up. However, the university will be dangerously close to falling off the map if it makes the wrong move here. If I was a Golden Eagle fan, I would not be too excited about the pressure on new AD Steve Cottingham.

A new coach will face the expected issues: players leaving the program, turning pro and previously committed high schoolers rethinking their decision. Incoming swingman Nick Williams, out of Alabama, and Jersey guard Tyshawn Taylor are already planning to ask out of their respective LOIs.

As you know, Marquette is not on my radar for discussion normally. While I might understand the tension behind the UW-MU blood feud that you see on message boards, I think it is stupid. Therefore, I have not stored up any vitriol for Crean (although it sounds like he may be a jerk and does look a bit silly being so tan in Wisconsin). But I think he is a good coach whom Marquette will miss.

So if Marquette dips, Wisconsin can only breathe easier for so long because Crean is a step in the right direction for Indiana--and the Hoosiers play UW twice as often. Trouble is, there are surely dark days and many more steps ahead for Indiana. On Monday, Indiana's interim head coach Dan Dakich ejected two more players from the Hoosier train. The cupboard gets more bare each day for a team that already was set to lose the Big Ten's only two AP All-Americans. The Kelvin Sampson mess also shook some incoming Indiana recruits out of verbal committments, although Marquette and Crean himself stepped in on at least one such player. Others, like Matt Roth, are excited for the Tom Crean era to begin.

On the surface, this looks like a great match for the Hoosiers. Crean is an Izzo disciple that has proven he can build a program in Big Ten country. The Indiana program is in serious need of rebuilding and Crean's strength is recruiting. That skill will be needed at IU to offset the stigma attached to a school that faces impending NCAA sanctions. If anyone can keep the talent level high in Bloomington, it is someone like Crean. The poll and fan comments over at The Hoosier Scoop indicate most Indiana fans are very pleased by the move.

The hire is as good as can be expected for Indiana. As for the Badgers, Bo will still face Tom Crean annually and nothing ought to change as far as recruiting goes. If nothing else, this only cements Wisconsin's status as the people's champ, a fact some Marquette fans will never be able to swallow.