Big Ten Power Poll: 2/2/09

The weather is still cold in Madison, Wisconsin's win column is still frozen shut and now even more colleagues in the Big Ten are accumulating important wins for their tournament résumés.

While the Badgers are still hostages of the amazing "Deep Freeze of 2009", Penn State's upset over Michigan State means that Wisconsin can now at least claim one win against the Big Ten's top five teams. I never thought I would see UW in the bottom three of the conference with Bo Ryan at the helm, so I guess it's good that there is still half of the conference schedule left to improve.

Ohio State, Michigan, Iowa and Indiana are the remaining teams who have not yet knocked off one of the conference leaders (MSU, Purdue, Minn., Ill., PSU). This has been a rollercoaster year for most teams in the league. As long as Michigan State and Purdue stay the course, I think this bodes well for the league overall ... though you would like to see a third heavyweight emerge, I don't think there is one this year.

The Big Ten has the second-highest conference RPI thanks to the top strength of schedule rating. Conversely, the Big Ten seems pretty locked in at fifth among the big boys (ahead of the SEC) when it comes to Ken Pomeroy's method of ranking conferences by the average rating of their members.

	Rk	Team	Record (Conf)	Poll Avg (Feb. 2)	Pomeroy Rank	Key Wins
	1	Michigan State	17-4 (7-2)	13.5	21	Texas, Ill, @Minn, Kan
^	2	Purdue	17-4 (6-2)	12.5	11	BC, David, @Wis, @Minn
v	3	Illinois	18-4 (6-3)	22	24	Mizzou, OSU, @Purd, Wis
	4	Minnesota	18-3 (6-3)	19	34	L'ville, @Wis, Ill, OSU
	5	Penn State	17-5 (6-3)	30.5	57	@MSU, Mich, Purd
^	6	Ohio State	15-5 (5-4)	42.5	52	@Miami, ND, @Mich
	7	Northwestern	12-7 (4-5)	-	62	Minn, @MSU, Fla. St., Wis
v	8	Wisconsin	12-9 (3-6)	-	42	@VT, @Mich
	9	Michigan	14-8 (4-6)	-	82	UCLA, Duke, Ill
	10	Iowa	12-10 (2-7)	-	84	Iowa St., Wis
	11	Indiana	5-15 (0-8)	-	204	TCU

Are We There Yet?

I am already sick of people breaking down the seedings. None of it matters; teams executing what they do better than the opponent is the only thing of consequence in the upcoming games. Turnovers, free throws, execution ... these things matter now more than ever. Not even playing close to home makes much of a difference in my opinion. Sticking to a routine and being rested is important, but that can be done away from home if a team is well-prepared. Will Wisconsin perform better in Omaha than it would a few more states away? Doubtful. I want the games to get here as fast as possible, so that the actual stories of competition are the topics of discussion again.

As it is, even those far more intelligent than I are breaking down bracket winners and losers and bemoaning this year's lousy matchups. What I find more interesting is actual statistical analysis in regards to seeding, like the Performance Above Seeding Expectations (PASE) values calculated by Peter Tiernan. Tiernan used PASE stats to identify the top indicators of overachievement in the tournament. It's useful for the brackets that award bonus points for picking upsets I suppose.

I plan on releasing my official picks tomorrow night. Just remember that when picking your national champ this week, choose a team ranked in the RPI top 10 with a winning percentage of at least .850 which has played 10 or more games against the RPI top 50 (and won). And try not to get distracted by those piddly graduation rates.

: : :

Bucky was ranked fifth in the final regular season ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll. While only sixth in the AP Poll, I think talk of getting no respect should all but disappear at this point. The ranking is actually an honor considering Duke, which embarrassed the Badgers, is ranked three spots behind them in both polls.

Wisconsin simply is not as battle-tested as it needs to be at this point. The Badgers have only played one decent team (Michigan State) in their past five games. You can only beat the teams you play, but that can mean very little once you reach the final 65. Let's hope Wisconsin can stay healthy then and avoid last year's results, when a 30-win team wound up 11th in the final postseason coaches poll, behind luminaries such as Pittsburgh and Southern Illinois.

: : :

Two more conference teams, Ohio State and Minnesota, continued their seasons via NIT invites. To emphasize how poor the bottom of the Big Ten was this year (as if the committee didn't do enough of that), no additional conference teams were invited to the awful CBI tournament.