Big Ten Braces For Wild Finish

UPDATE 2/25 - 3:40 PM: Robbie Hummel is out for the remainder of the season with a torn ACL.

After Wisconsin's uncomfortably close home win against Northwestern, it was easy to worry about the Badgers. Wisconsin shot a blistering 75% in the first half against the porous Wildcat defense, but needed every ounce of energy to hold on in the second half. [box score] Even though the team reached the 20-win mark for the sixth time in Bo Ryan's tenure, something has not seemed right as Jon Leuer tries to get assimilated back into the lineup off the bench.

But tight finishes turned out to be the growing norm in the Big Ten this week.

On Wednesday night, Purdue needed a Keaton Grant jumper to overcome Robbie Hummel's knee injury at Minnesota and Ohio State ended up getting all it could handle from Penn State. So if Wisconsin was planning on making up ground when someone else above them stumbled, it's time for Plan B.

Despite splitting it's last four games, Wisconsin still had an efficiency footprint identical to the streaking Boilermakers prior to Wednesday's games. Along with Ohio State, these teams clearly have posted the best combined offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in league play. That is a compliment to how well the team started out in conference. But it's not time to go back to the drawing board for the Badgers, since there is still positioning and seeding to play for.

Among the five top tier teams in the Big Ten, only three of their 21 combined losses have been to "bottom six" conference teams. And those losses came only to Northwestern (twice) and Minnesota (once). So it's safe to assume that Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan State, Illinois and Wisconsin can be penciled in for wins against anyone named Indiana, Iowa, Michigan and Penn State. That leaves about 3-4 important games left in the Big Ten:

Minnesota @ Illinois (Feb. 27)
Michigan State @ Purdue (Feb. 28)
Illinois @ Ohio State (Mar. 2)
Wisconsin @ Illinois (Mar. 7)

Purdue has now won 10 in a row, but it's reasonable to think they may drop a game or two unexpectedly if Hummel is shelved for an extended period. The Boilers' tilt with the Spartans is the most likely spot. If Purdue can win, say hello to your 2010 champion.

If not, we could be looking at a three-way tie at 14-4, depending of course on OSU's ability to get by Illinois. Illinois has three tough remaining games. Wisconsin should control it's own destiny with respect to finishing above Illinois for fourth place (to keep that other "streak" alive) because of their season finale in Champaign.

Any way you slice it, the top of the Big Ten will be a cluttered mix of quality teams.

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While the Badgers are probably anxious to work out the kinks on their road trip to Bloomington, Trevon Hughes is will continue to move up the Wisconsin record books. With one more steal, Hughes will tie Michael Finley for fifth place in career thefts. With one more made free throw, Pop will tie Dick Cable for ninth on that all-time list.

Revenge Will Have To Wait

I was not feeling too good on Sunday afternoon and laying in bed watching the Badgers play poorly did nothing to raise my spirits.

Wisconsin had a great opportunity to put some useful distance between itself and the conference wannabes with a road win in West Lafayette, but the return of Robbie Hummel and Chris Kramer proved how much of a fluke an 0-2 conference start can be.

JaJuan Johnson had a double-double for the Boilermakers, but I think his great game was more of an effect, rather than the cause, of the 65-52 spanking delivered by Purdue. [box score]

Take Hummel for example. He played 28 minutes, scoring 16 points and grabbing five rebounds. No one on the Badger roster was able to stick with him on the court. Hummel shot 4-of-8 from behind the arc and I swear every outside shot he put up was uncontested. You could see it coming ahead of time: Landry, Leuer, Nankivil, Krabbenhoft, Jarmusz ... I cannot remember who all got a chance to guard him, but you saw the defender going under a pick repeatedly, giving Hummel just enough separation to hit a few daggers. And to their credit, the Boilers found their go-to guy in the right spots.

Meanwhile, Wisconsin's best offensive players did throwing up terrible shots and then missing tons of easy ones. I am looking at you Mr. Landry, Mr. Leuer and Mr. Hughes. Very simply, UW came out flat and nothing went it's way as a result. Once again, Wisconsin shrank and cowered in the face of pressure defense, rather than exploit it.

Make no mistake: Purdue's defense was outstanding. They consistently extended pressure on the ball all the way to half court and basically suffocated the Badgers, who settled for too many jumpers. Wisconsin hit 6-of-20 threes (30%), but I think any time UW hoists more than 15 or 16 from that range, you know that the offense is out of sync.

To be fair, neither backcourt was very impressive in this game. Wisconsin held Purdue's leading scorer, E'Twaun Moore, to four points on 1-of-12 shooting. I cannot recall who guarded Moore, but I know Jason Bohannon got blown by a few times, so maybe Moore just had a bad day finishing too. J-Bo did not make up for it on offense either.

While Bohannon was merely invisible for most of the game, Trevon Hughes was just bad. This came on the heels of the Capital Times giving Hughes props for developing into a top on-ball defender. Though it was not very evident from the box score, I thought pint-sized freshman Lewis Jackson schooled Hughes on a number of occassions, both offensively and defensively. Hughes finished with five turnovers, matching his season-high from the UConn game.

I was really disappointed (and surprised) that Rob Wilson did not get more playing time. The team needed his aggressiveness and I have to nitpick at Bo Ryan's rotation in this game. Yes, Wilson is a freshman and it was a tough road environment, but what did Bo have to lose?

I never thought I would say this, but Joe Krabbenhoft was clearly the best offensive option on the court for Wisconsin. With Wilson collecting dust on the pine, Krabby was the only one playing smart, aggressive basketball. He missed only one of his seven field goal attempts and was the onnly Badger in double figures.

On the bright side, I watched the Illini absolutely crush the Hoosiers on Saturday and thanked the Wisconsin Athletic Department out loud for splitting up the Northwestern and Indiana games on the half-season ticket packages.

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Links:
- Get the mainstream media and one blogger's perspectives on the recent #1 vs. #2 class in Minnesota prep hoops. Mike Bruesewitz and #2 Sibley fell, 77-66, to the high school all-star team known as Hopkins. Everybody is already anticipating a rematch for the state title in March.
- The Wages of Win Journal concludes that the more Devin Harris shoots, the better the New Jersey Nets play. Check out Table Two for a comparison between Harris and an average NBA point guard. The mythical "Wins Produced" projection tells you what Badger fans already know: Devin is the man.

Media's Preseason Picks Are In

Wisconsin's Marcus Landry was named to the Big Ten's preseason all-conference team by the media this weekend, joining Manny Harris, Raymar Morgan, E'Twaun Moore and preseason POY selection Robbie Hummel.

It appears that Landry's Most Outstanding Player award from last season's Big Ten Tournament has helped distinguish him from the three other heralded upperclassmen returnees in Madison. Landry himself agreed. I am interested to see if the Goggled One can rise to the occasion.

Meanwhile, the media projects UW to finish third in conference play this season, behind Purdue and Michigan State. All three teams should be very solid this season, while the young'ns at Ohio State and Minnesota will determine whether the Big Ten begins its return to glory this season or next.

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The people have spoken. The majority of Hoops Marinara readers prefer Keaton Nankivil over Jon Leuer to start for the Badgers. Nankivil earned 51% of the vote, compared to 35% for Leuer. Nankivil has been getting a lot of attention lately as the one who will fill Brian Butch's shoes initally as the fifth starter. Even Bo Ryan had a few encouraging words about Nankivil in his Wisconsin media day press conference [video] last week.

It will certainly be a group effort, however, including both a more fit (sober?) Kevin Gullikson and J.P. Gavinski -- like it or not. I would not be surprised to see Leuer end up with more minutes played than Nankivil either, as long as Jon can keep his back healthy.