Badgers' Plus/Minus And Efficiency

Earlier in the season I highlighted some plus/minus statistics for a couple of Wisconsin's Big Ten games. The data was not too useful on an per-game basis as I mentioned, but now that the season is winding down, there is a lot more data to work with.

A big thanks for this goes out to NuclearBdgr from the Buckyville forum for sharing his tempo-free individual player stats with me. He saved me a ton of time attempting to calculate the +/- and efficiency numbers you will see below. I applied the same "(On court - Off court) = Net" concept I used in January to this new gold mine of data. The results will live permanently on this site's Statistics page and will be updated regularly.

Because the available statistics include individual players' points-per-possession (PPP), I can calculate not only Net +/- but also use the efficiency margin for each player when playing vs. sitting to present a player's tempo-free Net Efficiency.

What I found is that Keaton Nankivil had the "best" numbers on the team across the board in Big Ten play. Wisconsin scores more efficiently when he is on the court by a fair margin. The Badgers are at their best defensively when Nankivil plays too:


During the 209 minutes Nankivil has been on the bench, Big Ten opponents have outscored Wisconsin by 14 points. Breaking it down by offensive and defensive efficiency, you can see why:


Then, when you subtract the data from when Nankivil is off the floor from the data from when he's playing, a crazy high Net +/- Per 40 Mins and easily the best Net Efficiency Margin on the entire team:


Now, I am not going to conclude that Nankivil is the best player on the team, though I will argue that he is pretty darn valuable because of what he represents. Nankivil is a rare commodity for Bo Ryan this season: a skilled, experienced big man ... one who is much more productive than any possible replacement from the bench. For this reason, these numbers are much more kind to Nankivil than to a guard like Jason Bohannon, who plays nearly every minute of every game (so his +/- levels out) and has two other capable guards running the show when he does catch his breath.

Big men need more rest and when Nankivil sits, the Badgers are going small, often bringing in a freshman substitute. Nankivil gathers the highest percentage of offensive rebounds, shoots over 60% from inside the arc and can stretch the defense out to 3-point range. A pretty valuable guy, even if he is a shade under 10 pts, 5 rebs per game.

Badgers Balanced in Bloomington

Jon Leuer returned to Wisconsin's starting lineup Thursday night and helped lead the No. 17 Badgers to an impressive 78-46 dismantling of Indiana.

Wisconsin, which rose to No. 4 in the Pomeroy ratings, was the model of efficiency in Bloomington. As you might imagine, the team's 70.4 defensive efficiency was it's best of the Big Ten season as they held the Hoosiers to 35.3 effective field goal percentage (eFG%). Meanwhile, Keaton Nankivil (6-of-7 FGs) and company posted their second-highest eFG% mark (62.3) in conference play.

All five starters scored in double figures, led by Trevon Hughes' nice shooting (17 pts): Nankivil scored 14, Leuer and Jordan Taylor both had 13 and Jason Bohannon scored 11. Wisconsin shot 8-of-11 on 3-pointers (72.7%). [box score]

With Leuer replacing Tim Jarmusz, Wisconsin now puts an imposing three-guard lineup on the floor to start games, one which may rival any starting five in the Big Ten (yes, even the Ohio State). Each of these players has experienced their ups and downs during the year. Bohannon started the year in a bad shooting slump and Nankivil disappeared when Big Ten play began. Leuer is of course trying to return from injury. Hughes has not seemed as mentally engaged as he was the first half of the year and forced many bad shots in the last few games. Taylor has struggled uncharacteristically with turnovers lately.

The key going forward will be getting all five to contribute against higher caliber competition. Bohannon blossomed with Leuer out and is still shooting the lights out now that he is more aggressive finding shots. Nankivil is more assertive too. Leuer looks closer to 100% after a few tune-ups. But remember that the young Hoosiers turned the ball over 18 times and played uninspired defense all night.

At least for one night, the whole team seemed to put it together. As the first two off Bo Ryan's bench, Ryan Evans showed off his rebounding ability and Rob Wilson displayed his scorer's mentality once again. In fact, Wilson has asserted himself as the team's second best offensive threat in the post. He's decisive, and even then, knows when to stop his move and pass out if he can't get the look he wants.

So if Hughes and Taylor can can clean up the decision-making issues of recent games, you might see an entire starting lineup firing on all cylinders at just the right time.

Checking Back In

Returning from a tropical vacation to the same mountain of snow I left was not the only rude awakening I got earlier this week. It was an interesting time to be cut off from the information super highway to be sure.

I followed Wisconsin's shocking first-ever loss to UW-Green Bay on the web (again) before I skipped town, leaving me worried about which group of Badgers would show up against Marquette. Though Trevon Hughes and Jon Leuer willed the team into overtime against the Phoenix, and Ryan Evans seemed to play well, the turnovers and inability to lock down Green Bay's outside shooters were disconcerting. Wisconsin really had no business being in that game.

The worrying was all for naught though. While I was away, Leuer continued to catch fire. The junior forward is averaging 27 pts-per-40 mins in his last three outings, including a 24-point, 12-rebound masterpiece in 38 mins against Marquette. [box score]

Marquette was one of several teams in the region to hit a personnel snag over the last two weeks. The Jeronne and Tim Maymon circus pulled out of Milwaukee in search of greener pastures (Tennessee?) just days after the loss to Wisconsin. Iowa's Anthony Tucker showed he hasn't learned a thing, getting suspended indefinitely after a second arrest involving alcohol. And finally, the Royce White saga at Minnesota took a bizarre twist when he announced in an overly dramatic YouTube video that he was leaving college basketball. I'm sure the last chapter in that story is yet to be written.

Meanwhile, the Big Ten Conference "announced" it was going to consider expansion again. Well, the Chicago Tribune certainly took the bait and went hog wild with coverage of potential scenarios and implications. Count me as one who thinks Missouri is the most logical target due to proximity and an existing rivalry with Illinois. However, I promise not to get too worked up against the Rutgers and Syracuse suggestions since any expansion is pure speculation right now.

With their Big Ten brethren looming, the Badgers will try to avoid taking another dive when they host UW-Milwaukee tomorrow night. After piling on Cal Poly last Wednesday, Wisconsin has risen to No. 14 in the Pomeroy rankings even though it's still on the outside looking in at the traditional Top 25 polls. The Badgers have proven themselves thus far to again be exceptional defensive rebounders who take great care of the basketball, despite the occasional misstep against a Horizon league foe. Wisconsin has delivered an offensive efficiency above 113 for each of the past six games, only stumbling when it surrendered a 118.7 offensive efficiency on the road to Green Bay.

Since Pomeroy's individual ratings are now online, it was good to see that Jordan Taylor has cut down on his fouling while still dishing out the assists. Hughes, on the other hand, is drawing 6.7 fouls-per-40 mins -- good for 68th in the country. That is the most on the team since Alando Tucker's hey-days.