Experienced Duo Knocks Out Wildcats

In a game where Wisconsin's lack of front court experience had everyone nervous, the senior back court said resoundingly, "don't worry 'bout it."

Jason Bohannon used a variety of moves to pull the Badgers even, 27-27, in a slowed-paced first half against Northwestern. Bohannon led all scorers with 19 points on 7-of-12 shooting, in spite of hitting only 1-of-5 on his 3-pointers.

Bohannon then passed the torch to Trevon Hughes. Hughes, apparently unsatisfied with his reputation as an ACC sniper, completely took over down the stretch. After 33 minutes of terrible shooting, Hughes caught fire, turning a three-point deficit into a seven-point lead that #13 Wisconsin (14-3, 4-1) never relinquished. Pop hit five of his last six shots, including 4-of-5 from distance to scratch out a 60-50 road victory in Evanston. [box score]

Both of the seniors played all 40 minutes. Sophomore Jordan Taylor logged 37 minutes in his first start, notching 7 assists and zero turnovers. Hughes led a balanced rebounding effort (each starter grabbed at least five) with 7 boards. Still, the three-guard lineup looked pretty gassed with five minutes to play, especially Taylor. But Bo Ryan's thoughtful timeout before the last media timeout allowed the team to maintain the momentum that Hughes was providing.

Having Hughes and Taylor on the floor together is very comforting when playing a trapping team like Northwestern -- I am not nearly as nervous as I would have been two years ago. This is a game that the team might have let slip away even last year. Hughes' sense of the moment and emotional leadership prevented that from happening.

For a some great new background info on one of tonight's stars, head over to Luke Winn's article at SI.com. It is very insightful, clearing up some common misnomers about the nickname "Pop" and digging a little deeper into Hughes' path to Wisconsin. I found it ironic that a national writer brought some of these items to light (I may have missed it if local articles covered this stuff years ago), so Winn should be applauded for that.

After picking up a huge win versus the Wildcats (12-4, 1-3), the Badgers will prepare for another important road game against red hot Ohio State. Like the Wildcats, the Buckeyes will throw some zone at Wisconsin so this was good preparation for Saturday.

Ohio State (12-5, 2-3) doesn't have much in the big man department either, so you might see roughly the same rotation (ie: no Jared Berggren). Mike Bruesewitz was efficient on the offensive glass, but the three reserves totaled only 18 minutes among them. In the absence of Jon Leuer, fatigue is going to be an increased risk.

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Oh, and this is also awesome: Club Trillion founder Mark Titus strikes mixtape gold. [video]

Wanted: Power Forward

Despite Jon Leuer's broken wrist, at least Wisconsin beat Purdue, proving that national respect for the Badgers is warranted. But what if Leuer had gotten injured in the Michigan State game? People would have been jumping out of windows with that news. Leuer, the team's leading rebounder, was just about the only big body who showed up against the Spartans last week.

Even before Leuer got hurt, the power forward/center position was in need of improvement. One remedy for the unsightly rebounding situation in the Michigan State loss could have been a motivated Keaton Nankivil. Laying blame at any one player's feet is usually irresponsible, but Nankivil, one of my favorites, simply has to be called out. Wisconsin's other junior big man suffered through his worst performance of the year last against the Spartans and it didn't get any better against the Boilermakers beyond his highlight reel dunk sequence.

Wisconsin cannot survive the loss of Leuer without improvement from Nankivil. In East Lansing, Nankivil was routinely beaten for rebounds and got caught in defensive positions where he would recover just in time to bump into a Michigan State player. He didn't alter any shots or establish position; he would just slide in late to pick up cheap fouls that get called every time. If I didn't know better, I'd say he was trying to pick up fouls. As a result, Nankivil picked up three fouls, two points and one rebound in 15 minutes of play.

I was hoping a more dialed-in Nankivil would channel his performance from last year's Purdue game, but there he was on Saturday, playing even fewer minutes (10) after picking up two quick fouls five minutes into the game. At least one came when going after an offensive rebound, which is interesting if you look at Nankivil's stats ...

Through 16 games, Nankivil is averaging a little over 22 min/g. With the small samples sizes we have, there seems to be a small correlation between offensive rebounding and fouls committed:

Minutes		Games		ORebs		ORebs/Min		DRebs		DRebs/Min		Fouls		Fouls/Min
10-19		(5)		10		0.141		8		0.113		14		0.197
20-25		(5)		3		0.027		11		0.099		10		0.090
26-34		(6)		15		0.086		23		0.131		15		0.086

Here's two quick thoughts: One, Nankivil may come out too aggressive sometimes (imagine that!) in a desire to hit the offensive glass and needlessly picks up extra fouls, which lands him on the bench. Two, maybe by going after more offensive rebounds (and often succeeding), perhaps Keaton puts himself at a disadvantage when the opponent gets the defensive rebound and pushes the ball up court, translating into more times where he is in a poor position defensively ... playing "catch up" if you will.

Regardless of my thinly supported hypotheses, you want your best players on the court. So Nankivil must play smarter so he can get into a rhythm. He has arguably the sweetest stroke out of anyone on the team. Unfortunately, he doesn't have the back-to-the-basket game that Leuer does.

That is why the stage belongs to Jared Berggren. The redshirt frosh has not really experienced Big Ten basketball yet, but he needs to realize some of his potential in a hurry. If Berggren is ready to go, his minutes will skyrocket because he has the potential to be Wisconsin's best remaining weapon in the post. An inside presence will have to emerge or else opponents will be draping themselves all over the Badger guards.

Along with Berggren, two other young guys must step up. Like Nankivil, Ryan Evans needs to cut down on his fouls, but can bring a new dimension to the floor. Freshman Mike Bruesewitz needs to maintain the rebounding prowess he has flashed in limited minutes over a longer period of time.

Leuer's Surgery Set For Tuesday

Right or wrong, one of Wisconsin's biggest victories of the year suddenly seems like a consolation prize.

Even though Jon Leuer played 38 minutes in #17 Wisconsin's huge win over #4 Purdue [box score] that put the Badgers firmly in the Big Ten championship hunt, the university confirmed today that the junior forward will be out of action indefinitely with a fracture in his non-shooting (left) hand. Leuer is scheduled to have surgery to repair the bone on Tuesday.

Leuer has developed into one of the toughest matchups in the conference and is arguably Wisconsin's best scorer. Watching Leuer grow into his role as a go-to player on this team have been one of the most enjoyable facets of the season thus far. Unfortunately, he now joins a list of marquee names from Big Ten teams to be sidelined for a significant time this season. I suppose one reason for optimism is that if one of your best players is going to suffer a major injury, it might as well be in the same year as Kevin Coble, Evan Turner, Lewis Jackson and Maurice Creek.

Another silver lining is that if Wisconsin maintains its composure and makes the NCAA tournament as we all expect, the team could getting one of the biggest pre-tournament boosts of any team in the country just in time for a deep run. Giving the wrist a fair 8-week timetable to heal, a 100% healthy Leuer could potentially return right around Big Ten tournament time to a UW team that may be flying under the radar. I'm sure the team would welcome the new challenge of reintegrating Leuer into the rotation.

However, if Leuer's progress is slow, this could end up being the most significant injury for the program since Alando Tucker missed nearly the entire 2003-04 season with a foot injury. Since Leuer is not eligible for the medical redshirt that Tucker took, we will all be keeping our fingers crossed that Leuer can make an impact on the court year again this season.

No one can replicate Leuer's experience or his exact value to Wisconsin, but a group of guys is certainly going to have to try to replace his production. I cannot imagine Jared Berggren would go from not playing straight to Bo Ryan's starting five, but that's a somewhat arbitrary distinction anyway. It seems like Ryan Evans or Jordan Taylor, fresh off his career-high 23-point showing, would be the best bets to step into the lineup.

Michigan State Outslugs Wisconsin

The game was pretty easy to figure out: the home team won. Or to put it slightly less vaguely: two teams played good defense and shot poorly. The more aggressive team emerged victorious.

Michigan State is most comfortable in the aggressor's role and Wisconsin never forced the Spartans out of that position. Two obvious examples are rebounding and free throw shooting.

For starters, the Spartans were allowed to crash the boards unhindered in most cases, out rebounding the Badgers 28-23 overall. It was frustrating to see MSU get second chances all the time (10 offensive rebs), just by being hungrier for the ball and having the skill to acquire it. Wisconsin's big men have a ways to go collectively. Secondly, while both teams shot the same percentage on freebies, MSU outscored UW by 12 points by stepping to the free throw line 30 times. [box score]

It was a tough, hard-fought battle between the Badgers and Spartans. Both teams were held far below their average efficiency numbers on offensive. For this I applaud the defense on each side more than I care to insult the shooters.

Though Michigan State managed to still be more efficient than the average Badger opponent, Wisconsin was less efficient that the average Spartan opponent so far this year. It was easily the least efficient offensive performance of the year for UW, surpassed by only the Xavier and Duke losses in the previous two seasons. To compound matters, the Wisconsin's shot selection (21.7% on 23 3-pointers) played right into Michigan State's hands. So it seems Bucky brought out the best in Michigan State defensively.

I was impressed by Michigan State's big sophomore Draymond Green, and also junior Chris Allen, who had a rock solid game for Tom Izzo. On Wisconsin's side, Jon Leuer proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that he is for real with those 18 second-half points. Also, based on the replays I feel like Trevon Hughes' ankle should be good to go next game. I don't think the ankle injury had a whole lot to do with this particular loss.

Badgers, Spartans Jockey For Early Position

With Minnesota's loss to Purdue, Wisconsin's next two games will go a long way to shaping the early conference pecking order. Before the Badgers (12-2) get a shot at Purdue, they face off against arch-nemesis Michigan State (11-3). Wisconsin has lost four in a row in East Lansing, dating back to Bo Ryan's first loss to Tom Izzo in 2005.

This seems like two evenly matched teams, though Vegas has installed Sparty as the clear favorite. As the guys from MSU blog The Only Colors point out, both of these teams are doing what they do best. Namely, the Badgers are taking care of the basketball and the Spartans are hoarding their own missed shots. But no team in the nation limits opponent's second chances like Wisconsin.

The 17th-ranked Badgers enter the game scoring about 72 ppg, 10 fewer than the 10th-ranked Spartans. But MSU also gives up approximately 10 more ppg than UW does. See that evenly-matched theme again? As usual, it will come down to execution.

Trevon Hughes has led UW in scoring the past two games to snap out of the sleepwalk he was in prior to facing Ohio State. But the trepidation for Badger fans stems from Jon Leuer's inability to stay out of foul trouble at all in the team's first two Big Ten games (the same Leuer, btw, that The Only Colors mentioned as a possible Big Ten POY). Guys like budding rebound machine Draymond Green could make life difficult again for Leuer when coupled with MSU's ability to drive past the Badgers' perimeter defense to the cup.

Both teams have some depth, with a rotation of seven players and the ability to go 10 (UW) or 11 (MSU) deep if they have to. After seeing Ryan Evans perform against Duke earlier this year, I feel pretty comfortable with Bo's rotation staying composed in a big game. Can he duplicate this poise on the road?

With all the recent history between the two teams, it was not surprising to hear reports that Kalin Lucas allegedly toed the MSU company line with some comments in a recent interview, much like Goran Suton last season. But why would Lucas need to artificially inflate this game by ignorantly calling Wisconsin dirty? Are these guys being brainwashed by the head coach? There is not a single dirty player on this Wisconsin roster; in fact, if anything, many of the current Badgers are still learning to be less passive. Greg Stiemsma ain't walking through that door, Kalin.

Could it be that the Spartans need to pump themselves up to get that marquee win that has eluded them since beating Gonzaga? Since starting 4-0, Izzo's bunch has dropped every game against quality competition -- on a neutral site versus Florida, at North Carolina and at Texas. Incredibly tough slate, no doubt, but you can see why Michigan State might be searching for a balm of sorts. Right now the conference buzz is about Purdue, but a win over this year's new media darlings from Madison would put the Spartans right back at the forefront of the title chase. I, for one, have not forgotten that talent-wise Michigan State is just as stacked as it was to begin the year.

Links:
- Hughes was named one of 20 finalists for the Bob Cousy Award yesterday. I'd handicap this year's award for best point-guard as a two-horse race between Duke's Jon Scheyer and Kentucky's John Wall, with Sherron Collins at Kansas an outside consideration. Hughes is among the second-tier group after those three, but we shall see ...
- Sounds like Milwaukee native Calvin Godfrey is pretty comfortable with his new high school team up in Minnesota. The former Milwaukee Custer forward lit up Jordan Taylor's old crew, Benilde-St. Margaret's, on Tuesday night as the Twin Cities Hoops Czar chronicled.