2009 Big Ten/ACC Challenge Tips Off

It's time to wake up basketball fans. Maybe you find yourself still sleeping off the tryptofan that you gorged yourself on over the Thanksgiving holiday, stuck in football mode and awaiting the bowl matchups. If that's the case, your missed a slew of great season-opening tournaments on the hardwood.

Even though the Big Ten did not fare as well as expected in those tourneys, the conference gets an immediate mulligan starting tonight. Virginia hosts Penn State in the first game of the 2009 Big Ten/ACC Challenge at 6 pm CT. ESPN is advertising the Challenge on air, but there has been no hype for it online. And I don't blame them since the Big Ten has never won the event.

This is a stretch of games that can change national perception. Though the Big Ten is traditionally viewed as a plodding conference (especially when compared to the ACC), its teams have actually been playing at a fairly average pace through the first weeks of the season.

Tonight's game is one of the toss-up games that most people feel needs to swing the Big Ten's way in order to snap the ACC stranglehold on the challenge. Virginia (4-2), who played uptempo last year, is now coached by Wisconsin's favorite son Tony Bennett -- who has been known to lead slow-paced teams. By early indications, Penn State (4-2) is playing slower than average yet again.

The Challenge's marquee matchups begin in earnest on Tuesday, with the Wisconsin-Duke contest slated for 8:15 pm CT on Wednesday to help conclude the event.

So if you still want to sleepwalk through the college basketball season until March Madness, watching the Big Ten embarrass itself again in a BCS bowl and sobbing over Brett Favre's success, you can check online football odds at BetUS.

If you'd rather watch potential history in the making, check out ESPN for the next three nights. Even though it's still early, we will learn a lot about how the Big Ten can live up to its preseason hype and starting making some definitive statements about what problems each team will face this year. I am holding out hope for the conference, but don't have the best feeling about this one. On the bright side, if I go under .500 on my picks, there's a 50/50 chance the Big Ten pulled this thing out:

: : : Monday (predicted winners in orange)
6:00 CT - Penn State @ Virginia (ESPN2). Virginia might be rebuilding, but Penn State is the type of team that a Bennett-coached club will beat.

: : : Tuesday
6:00 CT - Wake Forest @#4 Purdue (ESPN). Purdue is carrying the Big Ten's banner right now. They have the talent and experience to get the job done. Wake just has Al-Farouq Aminu.
6:00 CT - Northwestern @ N.C. State (ESPNU). No Coble, no problem. The 'Cats are playing well and play their throwback style well, while the Wolfpack's resume is pretty weak.
6:30 CT - Maryland @ Indiana (ESPN2). Maryland is ripe for the picking, but Indiana is not quite ready for prime time.
8:00 CT - #9 Michigan State @ #10 North Carolina (ESPN). This one will hurt the most. If MSU can win the battle behind the arc, the Spartans can win, but UNC's front line is special.
8:30 CT - Virginia Tech @ Iowa (ESPN2). No words necessary.

: : : Wednesday
6:15 CT - Illinois @ Clemson (ESPN). Déjà vu? The Illini are reeling right now and Clemson is always playing well at this time.
6:15 CT - Minnesota @ Miami (ESPNU). Minnesota's 4-2 record is not as bad as it looks, since they fell to two decent teams. I believe in Tubby's guys to quiet the rising storm in Miami (6-0).
6:30 CT - Boston College @ Michigan (ESPN2). Big Blue must bounce back.
8:15 CT - #6 Duke @ Wisconsin (ESPN). I reserve the right to change my mind come Wednesday. Who guards Kyle Singler?
8:30 CT - #21 Florida State @ #15 Ohio State (ESPN2). This should be a nice game. Having at least one big man will help OSU slow Solomon Alabi, and the home court pushes the Buckeyes over the top.

ACC 6, Big Ten 5 ... miss it by *that* much.

Big Ten Previews, Charts and Graphs

Once again, Michigan basketball blog UMHoops has gathered a number of fellow bloggers together for a slew of Big Ten previews. For the second year in a row, I was happy to take part in the process. If you are down with O.P.P. (Other People's Previews), check out my Wisconsin preview that kicked things off last Monday. I think they are about halfway through the league by now.

(I just now realized I had this post all typed out and then just, uhm, forgot to post it.)

Hopefully I accurately gauged the general pulse of Badger fans heading into the year, tainted only slightly by my own opinion. Let me know if you agree or think I royally missed the mark.

One of the links Dylan included over there as an intro to the previews was a grid showing what percentage of statistical production returns for each conference team this season.

For a different perspective, The Only Colors -- a Spartan blog -- has a 2009-10 preview aerial focusing on last year's efficiency rating vs. returning minutes. Compare that graph to to last year's efficiency margin vs. returning minutes aerial by the Big Ten Geeks and you will see these things aren't always the best predictors of success.

So yes, if you are scoring at home, I'm officially down with O.P.P., O.P.C. (Charts) and O.P.G. (Graphs).

A Big Night Ahead for the Big Ten

Just one more thought on last night's game before I make some picks for the remaining ACC/Big Ten Challenge games:

When an opposing player simply goes "en fuego" like A.D. Vassallo did, you can play all the great defense you want after he gets the ball and it just won't matter. In those rare times, the defense must shift to denying him the ball. I understand why Wisconsin did not, considering Vassallo was merely keeping the Hokies in the game for most of that time. It wasn't until the lead shrank in the final minute that he could actually win it for Virginia Tech.

What scares me is a combination of two things. One, I don't Wisconsin has a smart shutdown guy on the roster right now that could chase a taller shooter around if the Badgers really needed to cool a guy off. Secondly, Bo Ryan is far too stubborn in his straight-up, pack it in man-to-man defense to ever try something like that, even if it is completely logical.

On to the picks ...

With the Big Ten leading 1-0, Tuesday's games feature a few toss ups that the conference must win heading into the final five games on Wednesday if it hopes to topple the ACC. Enjoy the great college hoops feast, with all games being broadcast on ESPN's family of networks.

: : : Tuesday (Predicted winners in orange)
7:00 ET - Ohio State @ Miami. I think if this game was later in the year, I would pick the Buckeyes and the upset, but the youngsters at OSU have only played three real games together and a road win in the Challenge is too much to ask.
7:00 ET - Iowa @ Boston College. The Hawkeyes are bad -- I cannot believe freshman Anthony Tucker is Iowa's best player. Home team takes it.
7:30 ET - Clemson @ Illinois. A must win for the Big Ten. Clemson (7-0) started out hot last year too and of course it did not mean squat. In a clash of styles, I'd like to give Bruce Weber the benefit of the doubt, but the history of this series causes me to reconsider.
9:00 ET - Duke @ Purdue. Can Purdue out-Duke the Blue Devils with perimeter feistiness and outside shooting? I like the Boiler defenders better (Kramer, Jackson, Moore and Johnson inside) and there is no way Duke is the fourth-best team in the country.
9:30 ET - Virginia @ Minnesota. This is the only game I truly expect the Big Ten to win.

: : : Wednesday (Predicted winners in orange)
7:00 ET - Indiana @ Wake Forest. Blowout city. Sorry Crean!
7:00 ET - Michigan @ Maryland. Great matchup between two teams who are hanging their hats on big upsets in the early season. The Terps are reeling after two straight losses and John Beilein's funhouse offense and zone defense might be the ticket to a huge Big Ten win on the road (against my better judgment).
7:30 ET - Penn State @ Georgia Tech. I had this game earmarked for an upset alert until I realized that GT's "bad wins" (Mercer, Jacksonville) weren't all that bad. I think the Nittany Lions will give the Yellow Jackets tough run in a battle of two-word mascots.
9:00 ET - North Carolina vs. Michigan State @ Ford Field (Detroit). Every one is handing this game to UNC and I feel like a lemming today.
9:30 ET - Florida State @ Northwestern. Home court doesn't mean much in Evanston.

My count is another 7-4 win for the ACC, but there are few that can go either way for sure. Counting Wisconsin's victory, I am forecasting five wins by road teams. As long as Purdue can give Duke their first-ever loss, I will be happy.

First Taste of the 2008-09 Badgers

Seventeen players. One set of eyes.

Those would be my eyes. At the annual Red/White Scrimmage, I wanted to keep an eye on all the players, attuned to both their ability on the court and their demeanor on the sidelines or in between plays. Easier said than done, however.

After attending the event last year, I knew ahead of time to temper my enthusiasm. With so many relatively new players though, I was holding out hope that at least of few of the newbies would bring a lot of energy to the scrimmage. In that sense, I was not disappointed. In a 72-67 win by the Red, there were some lulls in the action but enough to get excited about.

Seeing the team breakdown at the tip, I did not expect a win by the Red team (more on that below). The White team consisted of Landry, Krabbenhoft, Hughes, Gullikson, Jarmusz, Gavinski, Wilson, Evans, Markolf. Perhaps I am naive. The Red squad included Smith, Bohannon, Cain, Leuer, Nankivil, Berggren, Taylor and Valentyn.

I was impressed by the long-distance shooting by both sides in the first half. Some players forced shots as the game developed, but overall I would say 3-point shooting was over 40% for the scrimmage.

Before I delve into the player-by-player breakdown of the night, I had a few "badges" I knew that I wanted to hand out, including:

Most impressive: Keaton Nankivil
Most disappointing: Jon Leuer
Best moment: J.P. Gavinski blocking Jon Leuer's dunk attempt
Worst moment: By default, I'm going with the very end of the game when Nankivil could have capped off a Red victory with a fast break flush, but bobbled the ball, leading to a loose ball melee.
Most aggressive: Nankivil
Best defender: This is a biased opinion because I watched Jordan Taylor for most of the night, but he stuck with Trevon Hughes almost every step of the way.
Likely to redshirt: Tough call ... I really think Ian Markolf should take one, though Ryan Evans would not surprise me.

Seniors:
Marcus Landry :: #1
Compared to last year's scrimmage, Landry was much more active, which is great. He has good chemistry with the guards in the open floor. Getting Marcus out to a fast start this year would be a huge boost. Landry really runs the floor well for a "post" player, though he cannot be taller than 6'6". Quick decisions and overall aggressiveness were encouraging. Had a sneaky 20 points.
HIGHLIGHT REEL: Converted a steal into a fast-break dunk to start the second half.

Morris Cain :: #21
In light of Flowers' absence, I though Cain would get minutes last season, but I was wrong. I will not be misled again. Cain did not do anything to stick out in my mind, except for getting a little chippy with Tim Jarmusz. He's the only current Badger who is left-handed.

Kevin Gullikson :: #43
Gully looked legitmately quicker, as we have heard. It did not translate into much during the competition, but he looked okay.

Joe Krabbenhoft :: #45
The things I noticed most about Krabby were not really basketball-related. We have heard about him taking Jordan Taylor with him to an elementary school, but he even slapped Taylor five on a missed free throw -- from the opposite team -- and wears the same shoes as Jordan. It's great to see a senior bond with a freshman that way.
HIGHLIGHT REEL: You know what you are getting with Krabby, but Joe did follow up his 3-point Shootout title with two treys. Ugly, but effective ...

Juniors:
Trevon Hughes :: #3
I am still concerned with his shot selection at times. I think Pop notched two airballs on the night. There was a point where Taylor was shaken up and Hughes smelled blood. He attacked by draining a 3-pointer and driving to the hole mercilessly, which I liked. On a positive note, I did not see turnovers from Trevon.
HIGHLIGHT REEL: One behind-the-back pass on a delayed break, that was not converted unfortunately.

Jason Bohannon :: #12
Got into a shooter's rhythm at least once during the night and drained several jumpers, finishing with about 13 points. Got picked off trying to split the D in a clock-winding-down situation. good facilitator as the lone scholarship upperclassman on the the winning team. That should tell you something. He did have trouble sticking with some of the wing players on the White team, which is actually a good sign for Wisconsin as a whole.
HIGHLIGHT REEL: I don't remember the occasion, but he had at least one sick feed inside for an easy hoop.

Sophomores:
Wquinton Smith :: #2
Quick, but very tentative with the ball. Walk-on for a reason.

Brett Valentyn :: #15
This guy is really a nice player. But he's a step or two slow.

Tim Jarmusz :: #24
Made a couple of the worst turnovers of the night ... and he knew it. Not afraid to get physical as his episode with Cain proved. Nailed a trey as expected, but did not do much else.

Jon Leuer :: #30
As mentioned, Leuer had a tough night. At one point, he was shooting 2-for-13 and 0-1 on free throws. He is tall and long enough to get boards underneath, but had trouble finishing once he grabbed the rock. Leuer still looked fairly aggressive, but I think he has been a bit overhyped. Of course, that is judging just two practices basically. Leuer exhibited a soft touch from the paint. He misfired on several attempts from long range though. He is nowhere near ready on defense, but I still like his potential on offense.
HIGHLIGHT REEL: See Gavinski.

J.P. Gavinski :: #44
I cannot see Jared Berggren getting minutes over Gavinski this season. That's not to say I'm sold out for J.P, but he looked more comortable out there. He lacks quickness, but has two years now under his belt. Capable of banging home the 17-footer.
HIGHLIGHT REEL: Best moment of the night was when Leuer streaked down the lane and went up for an insane dunk from 3-4 feet inside the free throw line. J.P. rose up at the last second and totally denied the jam. Then he had the nerve to talk junk to Leuer, to which Jon responded by shoving J.P. out of his way. Stats credit Gavinski with a couple blocks, though he appeared to deserve credit for some of the blocked shots from the messy scrums.

Keaton Nankivil :: #52
Star of the show. Right off the bat he drilled a 15-footer and then went to work inside. Even made Landry look foolish on D by getting position and exploding to the rim. I have always been a Nankivil fan (even a "homer" after last year's scrimmage) but tonight he looked more confident than ever. When Bo Ryan alluded to some of the youngsters making a name for themselves in practice, now we know who. Keaton and Jordan are not afraid to challenge the juniors and seniors. They are the reason the Red team won tonight.
HIGHLIGHT REEL: Nearly everything, no joke. He converted three-point plays with a soft touch, he pivoted around the senior into monster dunks, he played solid defense ... but the icing on the cake was when he caught a pass gliding to the hoop from the left side and Gullikson chopped at his arm. Nankivil was not deterred and threw down a two-handed slam that would have been an "and-1" in the NBA. Also notched a big-time rejection of someone's shot attempt in the first half.

Freshmen:
Ryan Evans :: #5
Played the least; that does not necessarily mean a redshirt though. I noticed one nice move to the basket, but mostly a lot of pine time.

Jordan Taylor :: #11
Rock solid. Very impressive to see a freshman hold his own out there. Gave Hughes fits at times. Taylor is clearly not capable of scoring in the same way Hughes is, but knows how to post up in the swing offense. His defense was formidable and he played through what might have been a rolled ankle, that caused him to get burned a couple times. Notably, he recognized speed mismatches, burning J-Bo once and trying to take advantage of Krabbenhoft at another point (though nothing came of it).
HIGHLIGHT REEL: Taylor zipped a pass through traffic to a cutting Morris Cain to get an easy backdoor hoop. JT also locked up the game with a pair of free throws with 16 seconds left.

Rob Wilson :: #33
Showed a bit of defensive intensity. Did not get a lot of PT, perhaps due to the White team having nine players. Got to the hoop once from the wing for a nice easy basket.

Jared Berggren :: #40
Berggren did not appear to play with a ton of confidence, but he was able to run the floor effectively for a big man and finish some plays. I honestly do not expect him to play much this year, with Gully and J.P. ahead of him. But what do I know ...
HIGHLIGHT REEL: Used his quickness to get a baby hook over Gavinski in the second half. Looked like a go-to move towards the baseline that he has had for ages.

Ian Markolf :: #50
I'm seeing red. This classic big man appeared classicly gassed after one first-half stretch. Markolf made a couple buckets, but does not elevate at all. Dominated the Gatorade bottle during stoppages.

If you needed a reminder as to how competitive these guys are, look no further. From Hughes-Taylor and Nankivil-Landry to Gavinski-Leuer and Cain-Jarmusz, the new breed of Badgers showed a feistiness that can only mean good things for the future of Wisconsin basketball. Overall, I was much more impressed with this year's scrimmage than 2007's.

Of course, back-to-back 30-win seasons will bring out the optimist in anyone.

Media's Preseason Picks Are In

Wisconsin's Marcus Landry was named to the Big Ten's preseason all-conference team by the media this weekend, joining Manny Harris, Raymar Morgan, E'Twaun Moore and preseason POY selection Robbie Hummel.

It appears that Landry's Most Outstanding Player award from last season's Big Ten Tournament has helped distinguish him from the three other heralded upperclassmen returnees in Madison. Landry himself agreed. I am interested to see if the Goggled One can rise to the occasion.

Meanwhile, the media projects UW to finish third in conference play this season, behind Purdue and Michigan State. All three teams should be very solid this season, while the young'ns at Ohio State and Minnesota will determine whether the Big Ten begins its return to glory this season or next.

: : :

The people have spoken. The majority of Hoops Marinara readers prefer Keaton Nankivil over Jon Leuer to start for the Badgers. Nankivil earned 51% of the vote, compared to 35% for Leuer. Nankivil has been getting a lot of attention lately as the one who will fill Brian Butch's shoes initally as the fifth starter. Even Bo Ryan had a few encouraging words about Nankivil in his Wisconsin media day press conference [video] last week.

It will certainly be a group effort, however, including both a more fit (sober?) Kevin Gullikson and J.P. Gavinski -- like it or not. I would not be surprised to see Leuer end up with more minutes played than Nankivil either, as long as Jon can keep his back healthy.

Draft Lottery Puts Bucks In Ominous Position

Eighth overall pick a familiar crapshoot
So, in a two-horse race, those underachieving Chicago Bulls won the top pick in the 2008 NBA Draft and the mysteriously bad Miami Heat secured the #2 pick. That sets up a dream combo for each team of getting an immediate impact player that also happens to patch a major hole in the roster. Michael Beasley can fill the void of interior scoring and muscle that has been lacking for years in Chicago. With the second pick, Miami can give Dwyane Wade a dream backcourt running mate in Derrick Rose who will also defer to Wade at crunch time.

When the smoke cleared Tuesday night at the draft lottery, Milwaukee was left holding the #8 pick, one slot lower than anticipated based on the team's record. General manager John Hammond should know what to expect out of that spot: it will not be a superstar player. The 8-hole should sound vaguely memorable to Bucks fans, as the team has drafted from that sport three other times in the last 16 years with mixed results. Twice when Milwaukee has selected eighth, it got talented but mediocre players who were both shipped out of town very early in their careers, either due to injury (T.J. Ford, 2003) or simply being squeezed out of the lineup (Todd Day, 1992). It is interesting to note, however, that the only All-Star drafted from the 8th position in the last 20 years (Vin Baker) was back in 1993 by Milwaukee.

Besides Baker, Andre Miller (1999) has been a borderline star throughout his career, including a career-best scoring average this past season in Philly, but he has also made many stops around the league over the last decade. Rudy Gay appeared to make major strides in his second season and may soon join Baker, Miller and Rex Chapman at the head of the class for #8 picks.

Expanding the search to all players picked between seventh and ninth over the last 20 years might raise your hopes a tad. Including Baker, seven of those players have either been selected to at least one All-Star team or named Rookie of the Year (Damon Stoudamire, 1995). Luol Deng and Andre Iguodala figure to add to that list in the near future. Other players like Miller, Gay, Brian Grant, Jamal Crawford and Rony Seikaly have been solid contributors originating from picks seven through nine. So in 20 years, I count 15 successful picks out of a possible 60 from that general area, mostly due to a lot of talent from the ninth slot. So the Bucks have a 25% of landing a legit NBA player from that position.

Some mock drafts are still projecting Eric Gordon as Milwaukee's selection while DraftExpress.com sees the Bucks taking another tall, skinny foreigner. Yikes. At NBA.com, Kevin Love is the pick, although the foreignor was the consensus #8 acccording to their collection of the web's numerous mock drafts.

The Sporting News likes Gordon at that spot too, but Sam Smith sees trade possibilities lining up better for the Bucks. The trade angle would not be surprising, as Milwaukee has seemingly done everything in its power to avoid making mistakes in the draft by giving away its draft picks. In the nine drafts since the Dirk Nowitzki trade of 1998, Milwaukee has only made five first-round selections and in 2004, the Bucks had no picks at all.

In other draft-related fun, NBADraft.net has gone all the way back to the mid-1980s to rank the top picks from the entire lottery era. For what it's worth, Detlef Schrempf edges Ron Harper as the greatest #8 pick of the lottery era.

This South Florida Sun-Sentinel article could have been an interesting behind-the-scenes account of draft lotto. Instead I was left completely baffled. The story describes the ping pong process tension without explaining how it works. Thus, I had to snoop around NBA.com to refresh myself on how the ping pong ball combinations do their magic.

Kevin Durant: One Year Later

The Worldwide Leader has reported that Kevin Durant will be named the NBA's Rookie of the Year when the award is officially announced Thursday. Last year at this time, Durant was a hot topic in college basketball/NBA Draft circles. Many made comparisons between Durant and previous phenoms who had entered the league at a similarly young age, with a similar build or a similar playing style. That prompted a column here analyzing those comparisons, which actually got picked up by Deadspin. Luckily, Durant came through this year and I don't look like an idiot.

The 19-20 ppg projection was right on (Durant averaged 20.3), as was the prediction that he would play heavy minutes (34.6). Durant certainly became the face of the Seattle franchise, starting all 80 of the games in which he played. The rook even surprised me by showing glimpses of leadership down the stretch as the clear go-to player for the Sonics. However, Durant is only listed at 6'9" and 215 lbs. these days, so he definitely did not put on any weight (though I'm sure Texas fudged his measurables slightly while a Longhorn). His slight frame and perimeter focus kept him from being much of a rebounder (4.4). Worst of all, the Sonics slipped from a 31-51 record to 20-62 and leaving town in the season after Seattle said goodbye to both Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis.

Since last year, Basketball-Reference.com has switched from tracking "per-40 minute" stats to "per-36 minute" stats, so I'll use those to recap how Durant stacks up with his predecessors:

Per 36 Statistics - Rookie Season

Player	Team (Yr)	Pts	Rebs	Asts	Stls	Blks	TOs
Kevin Garnett	MIN (95-96)	13.1	7.9	2.3	1.4	2.1	1.7
Tracy McGrady	TOR (97-98)	13.8	8.2	3.0	1.5	1.9	2.0
Shawn Marion	PHX (99-00)	14.9	9.5	2.0	1.1	1.5	1.5
Carmelo Anthony	DEN (03-04)	20.7	6.0	2.7	1.2	0.5	3.0
Kevin Durant*	SEA (07-08)	21.1	4.5	2.5	1.0	1.0	3.0
*Only Durant won Rookie of the Year Award

A host of talented freshmen will jump to the NBA this summer, but it is unlikely that any can equal the impact of Durant. Both Derrick Rose and Michael Beasley--the two most likely candidates--play positions that have a steeper learning curve in the pros than a wing player like Durant faces. Though Beasley nearly matched Durant's output as a Big XII frosh, he can be slowed by a host of bigger bodies and tough defense, as Wisconsin proved in the second half of Kansas State's NCAA tournament exit. The NBA is full of bigger bodies. Plus, unless he's matured significantly in the last two years, I doubt Beasley is as mentally prepared as Durant to work for it.

It would be hard to argue with Mike DeCourcy of The Sporting News, who writes his week that next year's crop of freshmen in college basketball will be a letdown. Still, I think Greg Monroe of Georgetown might surprise DeCourcy. Monroe is not quite Beasley and he's sure no Kevin Garnett. But who is? Garnett was a supernova who ushered in a new era for the NBA, let alone Chicago high school basketball.

Hoops Marinara Celebrates 100th Post With Unimaginative Tournament Picks

How appropriate that the 100th post drops on Hoops Marinara the day before the 2008 NCAA Tournament begins. But there is no time to sit and reflect on the blog's modest introduction to the world over the past year. With apologies to the Super Bowl and Mount St. Mary's, which won the play-in game Tuesday night, tomorrow is the greatest day in sports. It kicks off a roller coaster weekend where coaches' job security, players' legacies, fans' dangerously high blood pressure and gamblers' house payments are all on the line.

Inevitably, some first-round games will be clunkers. Those #1 seeds will be blowing some poor opponent out by halftime and CBS will switch to a different game. How do you know when one team has the game in the bag? Well, consulting The Bill James Lead Calculator would be a start. James created an easy formula for determining when the comeback ship has sailed and it becomes officially safe to leave the building at a college basketball game. It's so intriguing that I already have it memorized! Read the full article to get the full enjoyment, but in a nutshell, here's how it works:

1. Take the number of points one team is leading by and subtract 3.
2. Add a half-point if the team in the lead has the ball, otherwise, subtract a half-point if the trailing team has the ball.
3. Take that resulting number and square it.
4. Now compare it to the time remaining: if the number is greater than the number of seconds left in the game, the lead is 100% safe, set in stone, locked-in.

For example, a 12-point lead with one minute left in the game is statistically insurmountable according to James. That seems like pretty common knowledge, but at what point does a 25-point lead mean you don't have to worry about your team screwing things up? With 7:44 remaining, that's when. I think it will come in handy ... or at least improve my quick math skills while hoping someone proves James' formula wrong.

Now for the picks. I cannot justify any of the standard 5/12 or 4/13 upsets this year. And the upper tier of teams are too superior to get booted out very early either. The middle rounds will be where this tourney earns its keep. But I do love the 10-seeds this season ...

Round 1 winners:

EAST
(1)North Carolina, (8)Indiana
(5)Notre Dame, (4)Washington State
(6)Oklahoma, (3)Louisville
(10)South Alabama, (2)Tennessee
MIDWEST
(1)Kansas, (9)Kent State
(5)Clemson, (4)Vanderbilt
(6)USC, (3)Wisconsin
(10)Davidson, (2)Georgetown
SOUTH
(1)Memphis, (8)Mississippi State
(5)Michigan State, (4)Pittsburgh
(11)Kentucky, (3)Stanford
(10)St. Mary's, (2)Texas
WEST
(1)UCLA, (9)Texas A&M
(5)Drake, (4)Connecticut
(6)Purdue, (3)Xavier
(7)West Virginia, (2)Duke

Sweet 16:
EAST
(1)North Carolina, (5)Notre Dame
(3)Louisville, (2)Tennessee
-Possibly the most exciting, highest-scoring regional final games of all-time. Even with Wisconsin on, I might sneak a peak at one of these games. UNC and Tennessee are destined for a classic collision.
MIDWEST
(1)Kansas, (5)Clemson
(3)Wisconsin, (2)Georgetown*
*These two games would be the opposite of clashes in style. But the UW-G'Town contest would be interesting as a matchup of experience (Butch, Flowers, Landry, Krabby) versus tournament experience (last year's Final Four run for the Hoyas). Gotta vote the alma mater through.
SOUTH
(1)Memphis, (4)Pittsburgh
(3)Stanford, (2)Texas
-I don't trust Texas or Memphis. Even though I know nothing of Stanford besides the Lopez twins, I'm picking Texas to lose because I already have too many top seeds advancing. Pittsburgh is finally healthy and they have good players at every position. Same as Memphis, only better disciplined.
WEST
(1)UCLA, (5)Drake
(6)Purdue, (2)Duke*
*Very excited for this matchup. Very similar teams here (both Badger killers) and Big Ten could really earn some bragging rights here. I had Duke picked, but I will go with my heart, not my head.

Elite 8:
EAST
(1)North Carolina vs. (2)Tennessee
MIDWEST
(1)Kansas vs. (3)Wisconsin
SOUTH
(4)Pittsburgh vs. (3)Stanford
WEST
(1)UCLA vs. (6)Purdue

Final 4:

(1)North Carolina vs. (1)Kansas
(3)Stanford vs. (1)UCLA

I like UNC over UCLA in the championship game. The Tar Heels have Player of the Year Tyler Hansbrough on the inside, a great point guard in Ty Lawson and plenty of athletes in the stable. UCLA conters with phenom Kevin Love on the blocks, Darren Collison running point and great finishers in Westbrook and Shipp. The difference is Wayne Ellington for UNC and UCLA's lack of consistent outside shooting. They've gotten too many breaks already.

: : :

Those "Minnesotan Badgers" are proving themselves to be winners. Jordan Taylor and Armond Battle both scored 20 points as Benilde-St. Margaret's advanced to the Minnesota Class 3A State Tournament for the second straight year. Mike Bruesewitz led his team to a Section 4A Championship as well, scoring 11 of his game-high 19 points in the second half. (Not a bad game for Rodney Williams either).

On another prep note, the Illinois Associated Press announced their All-State teams recently. For Badger fans, note junior Diamond Taylor earned honorable mention in Class 3A. Tons of D1 talent at the Class 4A level too. The Big Ten has already claimed eight players from the first and second teams in those divisions, including four headed to Illinois. Up to three additional players may wind up in the conference as well. The lower classes (1A & 2A) feature some names you might recognize as one-time interests of the UW staff.

Fine-Tuning the Tourney Machine

The goal for the Badgers during the Big Ten Tournament is to get another shot at Purdue and avenge their only two conference losses. Doing so would provide a most valuable boost of confidence for Wisconsin and display real improvement in adjusting to a quality opponent's more aggressive style. Proving themselves to themselves in such a scenario is even more important than impressing any selection committee.

Sure, this mostly worthless weekend is good for working out the kinks in a tournament setting, but there is no reason Wisconsin should slip up as in years past. Bucky's first victim, the Wolverines, have warmed up already, though they certainly did not get hot. Wisconsin and Michigan begin a busy Friday for the tournament and unfortunately the game is at 11 a.m. Central, which means Big Ten Network or not, most people won't be seeing this game live.

With the field pared down to eight to start the day, I see the only possible upset being Minnesota over Indiana. I know, I know ... that is crazy talk, considering Minnesota had to come from behind to beat Northwestern. But Tubby's team just needs to continue the play on both ends of the court that led to its 34-18 second half yesterday. It's tough to beat a team three times and Indiana has lost two of its last three games. The toll of the Kelvin Sampson saga is sneaking up at the worst possible time for the Hoosiers.

Plus, Minnesota has something to play for. If they win the Big Ten tourney, they're in! More realistically, the Goofs are jockeying for a position in one of the other postseason tournaments. Something that hasn't gotten any mention around Madison (and hopefully never does) is the brand new postseason tournament that will compete with the NIT for the bubble scraps. The College Basketball Invitational will be a 16-team field featuring a three-game series for the final round. Despite it's ugly stepchild persona, the NIT could always claim the bright lights of Madison Square Garden in its corner when it came to drawing teams after the NCAA selections. The CBI hopes to counter this lure by allowing teams to host up to five home games in the tournament. Fox will broadcast the games through its three college sports outlets (FCS Atlantic, Central and Pacific).

Update: Recruits, state tournaments, etc.
Jordan Taylor and Jared Berggren both notched big wins last night. Taylor blew up with 29 points for BSM in a 74-57 win over Washburn. The Red Knights will play second-seeded Academy of Holy Angels (notable alum: Larry Fitzgerald) next Tuesday in a sectional final. The two teams played a nailbiter earlier this season that BSM won thanks to another big game from Taylor. Princeton beat Annandale 62-41 in the Section 5 quarterfinals behind 24 points from Berggren. The Tigers play again on Saturday.

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Diamond Taylor's team was eliminated fairly early in Illinois's IHSA playoffs but Lenzelle Smith, Jr. is a name Badger fans might be hearing more very soon. Smith is a very athletic 6'3" shooting guard that Hoops Marinara has been tracking on the recruit list for 2010. His team, Zion-Benton, has advanced to the final four of the 4A state tourney. I guess he opted to skip the slam dunk contest, in which Isiah Nunn participated. Ah, few places do high school basketball better than Illinois.

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It looks Royce White might not have any trouble playing next season after all, according to speculation by Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press:

"Look for 6-foot-7 Royce White, considered the top high school junior basketball player in the state and recently dismissed from DeLaSalle for behavioral issues, to switch residences with his mother and become eligible for his senior season at a suburban Twin Cities school. The Gophers, who have offered a tender, remain in the recruiting hunt."

Even so, it was a somber moment when I officially removed White [Rivals :: Scout] from the list of UW's 2009 prospects. From the game recaps I have read this season, White seems to excel more in the AAU environment than a structured team scenario. (3/14 EDIT: Cooper, Hopkins and St. Bernard's are the basketball powers being mentioned now as likely destinations)

And if you think I've lost my mind with all this recruiting nonsense, something called Midwest Future Hoops Report is ranking 8th graders!

The Kings Are Dead

Live stats :: Streaming audio (ESPN 1070)

Three defending champions bit the dust in WIAA State Tournament play during another round of great games on Friday, meaning there will be no repeat winners this year. Four new champions will be crowned today as the tourney concludes.

Divisions 2 & 4 got underway yesterday, with the Division 1 semifinals afterwards. The underdogs had their day in D2. Adams-Friendship halted big bad Plymouth on a 3-pointer by Ben Pease in the final 10 seconds. Then New Berlin Eisenhower knocked off defending champ Monroe, 53-49.

In D4, Suring and Eleva-Strum advanced, with the latter easily dispensing of traditional Randolph It will be a clash of the only two unbeaten teams remaining in Wisconsin. Both teams are 26-0, but the player to watch is Suring's Josh Regal. He and Jeronne Maymon have been generating the biggest buzz this weekend as far as individual players are concerned.

A final defending champion, Oshkosh West, engineered a valiant comeback before succumbing to Madison Memorial, 61-58. The well-groomed Spartans were hitting shots left and right as the game began, overwhelming the Wildcats with their athleticism. Memorial had leads of 12-0, 26-9 and ultimately 49-24 after a lay-up by sophomore guard Tre Creamer with just under seven minutes left to play.
At that point, West implemented tenacious pressure of it's own. They forced the young Spartan guards into some of the worst decisions I have ever seen on the basketball court. The Wildcats picked off pass after pass that resulted in 21 unanswered points. And no, this was not a football game. However, Memorial's star remained unfrazzled. Maymon took over the ball-handling duties with few problems and was able to extend the lead back to a comfortable level by sinking enough free throws in the final two minutes.

Right now, Maymon is a man among boys. Both of West's huge post players eventually fouled out, but it warrants mentioning that 6'8" sophomore David Anderson looked pretty impressive. Anderson seemed much more coordinated and well-built than you might expect for a player his age and size. Senior John Benkoske, who will follow several Oshkosh West alumni and play NCAA ball for Loyola (Chicago) next year, had a quiet night but Anderson shot 6-of-12 with three blocks [box score].

Memorial (23-2) will play a deep Wauwatosa East (25-1) team -- which defeated rival Brookfield Central in the other D1 semifinal -- around 8:30 p.m. tonight. A loaded LaCrosse Aquinas squad goes for it's first title at the D3 level against Iola-Scandinavia as well. The WIAA website has box scores and schedules for all tournament games. Dennis Semrau of The Capital Times made some predictions this morning and I tend to agree with all his picks, except for D4 where I am pulling for the 5'9" Regal and his Suring teammates. They currently lead Eleva-Strum 14-8 at the end of the first quarter. (Ed. note: Thanks to a Blogger service interruption, this post didn't appear as soon as I would have liked; Eleva-Strum now leads in the 3rd Q)

More tourney links:
JSonline's Preps Plus | Cap Times' Prep Work | Wishoops's March blogness

Around the Brackets

Wisconsin's extended break from competition will come to an end tomorrow when they play at Penn State. Add Michigan State's horrific loss to Iowa to the recent St. Louis debacle and UW's own nightmare against Duke looks slightly more acceptable. Not to mention Wisconsin's entire Dick Bennett Era. How has Roy Williams managed to contain himself?

Indiana and Wisconsin are now the final two teams still undefeated in Big Ten play. Over at ESPN.com, Joe Lunardi has moved the Badgers into a #3 seed in this week's Bracketology. Wisconsin joins Indiana and Marquette on the 3-Line, with Texas A&M. I eagerly anticipate next week's update of the Lockbox at The Bracket Board (love the lime green!), where there Badgers were a #4 seed 10 days ago.

If you are interested in such things, The Bracket Matrix attempts to track all relevant NCAA Tournament projections together in a grid format and reach a consensus. Wisconsin is a #4 here as well.

2007 Big Ten/ACC Challenge

Less than 24 hours until tip-off: No. 7 vs. No. 20

Wisconsin fans have to wait one more day to lock horns with one of the most storied college basketball programs ever, but this year's Big Ten/ACC Challenge began tonight. It got off to a pretty rough start, I might add, with Iowa dropping a dreadful game at home to Wake Forest. The Hawkeyes missed 11 of their 18 free throw attempts, halting any possible comeback from the 16-point halftime deficit.

The ACC teams get four out of five at home tomorrow night. Unfortunately, the one Big Ten host is Indiana, already a heavy favorite versus Georgia Tech. Before I prognosticate, keep in mind that the Big Ten has never won this challenge. No matter how confident I am going into the week, the ACC always wins the majority of the swing games and pulls a minor upset or two. The fact that I have little hope for the conference to reverse the trend this year can only mean good things.

The one game that I think might surprise some people starts at 6:30 CST. Is the Tubby revolution for real in Minnesota? The Gophers will have to go on the road to prove it, but Florida State is a beatable foe.

As for Wisconsin ... coming into the season, I really liked how the Badgers matched up with the Devils. I would have predicted a victory in October. However, after getting to see each team play a couple of times, I give Duke the edge by virtue of the greatest home court advantage in the nation.

If I had seen a little more out of Landry, Butch and the freshman so far, I would be more at ease. Landry still could have a breakout game, though, because he will be challenged from the start. He cannot disappear. I really want to see how he responds on both ends of the court to facing a younger player like Kyle Singler. A big game from Landry gives UW a good chance at winning.

As I see it, Duke perimeter players have a distinct advantage as shooters and playmakers, with Hughes being an exception. Pop will definitely eat up Greg Paulus. Duke is playing more aggressively and explosively, however, so Hughes has to be focused from the onset and avoid getting rattled by pressure and his first road test of the year. This should be his coming out party nationally, possibly in the same way that Tucker dominated Pittsburgh last season. The game is one of two gems in ESPN's challenge lineup, so it doubles as a good recruiting tool for Bucky.

Wisconsin cannot afford to get behind by very much at any point. The bottom line is that every Badger needs to play well to pick up the victory in a hostile environment against Duke. As I've said before, I think Michael Flowers will be the catalyst. Can he guard Gerald Henderson or DeMarcus Nelson and still be efficient offensively? He hasn't been very effective for a full game yet.

But I'm contradicting myself anyway and picking Wisconsin to beat the Evil Empire out of principle. Counting the Iowa game, I see the Big Ten posting a 4-7 record and retreating to the Midwest with its tail between its legs yet again. *Sigh* ...

(predicted winners in bold)
Wake Forest @ Iowa - LOSS
Georgia Tech @ (15)Indiana
Northwestern @ Virginia
Minnesota @ Florida St.
(20)Wisconsin @ (7)Duke
Purdue @ (18)Clemson
North Carolina St. @ (13)Michigan St.
Boston College @ Michigan
Illinois @ Maryland
(2)North Carolina @ Ohio St.
Virginia Tech @ Penn St.

Yes, that's the road teams winning 5 of 10 ...

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Not sure what ultra-young players are grabbing the UW staff's attention recruiting-wise, but a couple of youngsters are already making their mark for Milwaukee Bay View. Freshmen Darnell Harris is a 6'6" forward who teamed with Johnnie Lacy to beat defending champion Oshkosh West last week.

A Glimpse Into The Present

There's nothing like a sloppy Red/White scrimmage to derail the confidence you have in your favorite team. As far as scrimmages go, it was not even that sloppy. I was just hoping to see something, well ... more, something better.

What I saw was a team that at this point still doesn't know its identity. Minus last year's top two go-to guys and leaders, you wanted to see Marcus Landry step up and dominate. Minus Michael Flowers, who I hope can still be this year's emotional leader, you didn't see enough players making you get excited just by virtue of their energy.

That being said, there were plenty of bright spots. One was definitely seeing Joe Krabbenhoft leading his team in scoring. He had about 18 points. Technically, the Red vs. White scrimmage was a tie, thanks to some creative score keeping at the five minute-mark and again under a minute. The Red team (Hughes, Krabbenhoft, Gavinski, Keaton Nankivil, Gullikson, Valentyn, Cain) appeared to be a decided underdog, having only two players from last year's rotation, yet they led by around 20 points for over half of the game. I attribute most of that to the fact that Hughes controls the tempo, especially in a looser setting. His team got much easier baskets. Yet when the score was "reset" to 71-71 with five minutes left, the White team (Butch, Bohannon, Landry, Bronson, Stiemsma, Leuer, Jarmusz) took control. The fact that the experienced players came alive when it mattered eased some of my discomfort, but the fact that Hughes & Co. folded with several turnovers was a little worrisome.

The Badgers are also sporting new jerseys this year again. Not bad. Thankfully, nothing crazy, nor resembling women's jerseys. The closest comparison is the Houston Rockets. Not sure what you can glean from the pics.

I am operating under the assumption that the scrimmage provides at least some value in anticipating what how the team will function this season. Get on board with me. Here's the rest of what I saw, player-by-player:

#1 :: Marcus Landry
Very disappointing in my opinion. It took about 15 minutes of play to realize that he was even in the game. To me, this is a bad sign, even in scrimmage. It's not a sign that he's a bad player or even not a leader. I feel it does indicate he's not ready to make The Leap this year like we all had hoped. Landry brought the ball up court several times, but he still seems more comfortable down low on offense. To fill Tucker's vacated role, Landry will have get better penetration, which will only come as he gets more experience handling the ball. He picked up four fouls early and seemed frustrated with the play of Leuer on a couple occasions.
HIGHLIGHTS: Landry posted one alley-oop dunk and a fantastic pass in the paint for an assist.

#3 :: Trevon "Pop" Hughes
Best player on the floor. A couple of shots didn't bounce his way on some nice moves to the hole, but did hit several jumpers. Overall he looked ready to lead the team, although I would have liked to see him draw some fouls. Still gets caught in the air a few times without a real plan, but he got bailed out each time.
HIGHLIGHTS: Pop rebounds very well as a lead guard, which is great because the transition to the other end of the floor is then instantaneous. It's just fun to watch him run end-to-end with the ball.

#12 :: Jason Bohannon
Not much to write about. I wish he would have put up a few more shots, but I really wish he could have played along side Hughes to see what kind of open shots he'd get. J-Bo seemed content to distribute the rock.
HIGHLIGHTS: A deep step-back two with his foot on the 3-point arc.

#14 :: Tanner Bronson
Went to the bench when the five minutes of "serious" play began. 'Nuff said.
HIGHLIGHTS: He did manage one bucket.

#15 :: Brett Valentyn
I doubt this guy will be an In-Game Asset (IGA) for Wisconsin. Wisely used his redshirt last season and has some height at 6'4".
HIGHLIGHTS: Took advantage of a size mismatch to score in the post on Bronson and drew a foul down there on a separate occasion.

#21 :: Morris "Sugar" Cain
I predict Cain will see significant minutes this season. He seems to make open shots, is a fairly good athlete and plays guard. I think that will be enough this year, given Flowers' status. But he will have to fight Jarmusz for those minutes, judging by Bo's comments.
HIGHLIGHTS: Blocked a Butch layup from behind, off the glass. Sunk the first basket of the game, a baseline J from about 10 feet. Truly a lost art.

#22 :: Michael Flowers
Did not see him in attendance. I suspect he was supposed to suit up for the red team originally.

#24 :: Tim Jarmusz
Did not play. No explanation for why he relaxed on the bench the whole time, although some fans claimed to see him holding his ankle.

#30 :: Jon Leuer
Struggled with turnovers and decision-making. Not uncommon for a freshman, but unless Flowers does not return, I think a redshirt year would benefit Jon. He got whistled for a five-second call and his turnovers get the White squad out from putting a few runs together. I don't see how he would get minutes down low and he won't be helping on the wing much until his ball-handling improves. I know he was recruited more as a small forward than anything, despite the fact that he's 6'10". The White team threw three near 7-footers out in their front court for stretches when Leuer joined Butch and Stiemsma. That's fun.
HIGHLIGHTS: The nifty pass from Landry went to Leuer, who used a great, if unnecessary reverse to lay the ball in. Rest assured, Leuer can convert when given the ball near the basket. He scored in double figures.

#32 :: Brian Butch, "The Polar Bear"
Butch will be the 2007-08 team's leading scorer. If he did not still have the knack for pivoting with the ball directly into the double-team on the block, he'd be a great offensive player. Along with Hughes, Butch stood out (as he should) as a clearly superior player. He has to be Wisconsin's go-to guy and I think he's finally ready in his fifth season. As reported, he is in the best shape of his career.
HIGHLIGHTS: In the five-minute drill, Butch attacked. And scored. And got to the foul line. I want to see this all year in meaningful games. People realized how valuable Butch was when he got injured last season, so it's time to truly enjoy him. He also had a couple of Shaq-like dunks where he pulls his knees way up and hangs on the rim a bit in addition to an "and-one" dunk over Gullikson (or Gavinkski, I can't remember).

#34 :: Greg Stiemsma
The Steamboat impressed me quite a bit. He showed a nice touch around the basket and relatively good footwork. I don't think he gets credit for being the good athlete that he is, no longer awkward at all in his huge frame. And he is having a lot of fun while he's at it.
HIGHLIGHTS: Swatted two consecutive shots in the same possession near the beginning of the game.

#43 :: Kevin Gullikson
Hard to believe he's "only" 6'7" -- he truly looks like he belongs on Bret Bielema's defensive line. At this point, you know what you're getting out of this guy: hard work and a banger to body up on bigger foes.
HIGHLIGHTS: Nothing stands out.

#44 :: J.P. Gavinski
Looked winded immediately and threw up several airballs from 10-15 feet. Not a good omen. Also got abused on the defensive end. He will get minutes backing up Stiemsma, but mostly by virtue of his height. I would expect Nankivil to get more PT (hopefully). When J.P. does something good, let's just say it's a pleasant surprise.
HIGHLIGHTS: As the game wore on, he actually showed a few decent post moves and a softer touch from within five feet.

#45 :: Joe Krabbenhoft
Krabby is one of those players I don't expect too much from. People go overboard criticizing his lack of offense and others go overboard defending his all-around game. The fact is he is always around the ball and he hit nearly every shot he took this afternoon. Now, come the regular season, do you really care whether that's a spinning pull-up jumper or another garbage five-footer because he got himself in good position? Me neither.
HIGHLIGHTS: I was extremely pleased watching Krabbenhoft. He crashed the board for a sky-high one-handed rebound at one point and sank a couple of pretty, close range bank shots -- reminiscent of Big Fundamental himself. A bit more willing to shoot, but we'll see how that translates to real game action. I have my fingers crossed optimistically.

#52 :: Keaton Nankivil
True player. I've said it a million times, but this guy is going to be a workhorse for the Badgers. There is reason the ACC was after this kid. He is fundamentally sound, with good range, athleticism and a Big Ten body. He looks like he belongs.
HIGHLIGHTS: Executed a sweet three-part up and under move on Butch that got a big cheer out of the crowd. Nailed an open trey early in the game while others were still finding their rhythm. Keaton can match up against the trees on either end because he can front the post well already, which Bo will absolutely love.

Wisconsin could be hard to handle down low this season. There is a lot of experience at the post positions, but Nankivil will crack the rotation. Butch and Stiemsma will be a nice duo and if there was ever a year to employ some zone defense, this is it. Imagine Hughes, Flowers and Krabbenhoft hounding the perimeter and Nankivil and Stiemsma in the paint. The offense will struggle at times, but I can't wait to see which guys emerge to help Butch out.

Stepping To The Next Level, Part II

Yesterday I started to discuss what kind of numbers I thought Kevin Durant would post in his rookie season. I decided to research the first few seasons of some of the young phenoms to whom Durant has been compared. Factors I thought might be valuable to keep in mind were games played and minutes-per-game, in addition to the quality of the teams each player was on.

Let's begin.
Note: Height & weight measurements are from draft day.

Kevin Garnett (6'11"/220)

In the 1995-96 season, Garnett played 28.7 min/g in 80 games as a rookie after being drafted fifth overall by Minnesota. The Timberwolves were coming off a 21-61 season and were bad again (26-56) in The Kid's first campaign, where he put up 14.6 ppg, 8.7 rpg and 2.3 bpg per 40 minutes*. At age 20, Garnett improved to 17.5 ppg (per 40) with similar rebounding and block numbers. Likewise, Minnesota's record improved to 40-42 with Garnett playing about 10 more min/g in his second season. With the team's first talented guard (Stephon Marbury) by his side, Garnett made the first of eight consecutive trips to the playoffs.

The T-Wolves were a terrible franchise when KG arrived, six years removed from expansion status and going absolutely nowhere. A premium was placed on developing him into a fearsome, agile post presence. Subsequently, Garnett has added 33 pounds of muscle since entering the league. If it weren't for Garnett, you might wonder if pro basketball would still exist in Minnesota. I can see Durant facing the same questions KG has regarding his ability to make others around him better.

Tracy McGrady (6'8"/210)

McGrady was drafted ninth overall by Toronto in the 1997 NBA Draft. The Raptors were atrocious the following year (16-66) and McGrady played only 18.4 min/g over 64 games. But averaged over 40 minutes, his numbers looked like this as an 18-year old: 15.3 ppg, 9.1 rpg & 2.1 bpg. Not bad. McGrady was less well-known than Garnett coming into the league and injuries in his second season hid his improvement, when he averaged 16.6 ppg, 10.1 rpg & 2.4 bpg (per 40). McGrady's (and Toronto's) breakout season coincided with Vince Carter's arrival the following year and he finally reached supernova status at 21 when he fled to Orlando.

Despite recurring back problems, T-Mac's scoring average has not dropped below 25 since escaping Carter's shadow. Unlike Garnett, McGrady has made his living on the perimeter. He has bulked up to 223 lbs., but uses his height to get open jumpers and loves the reverse lay-up. He is the most obvious comparison to Durant, as Durant might be the only player we could envision duplicating McGrady's 35-second explosion versus the Spurs [WARNING: long YouTube clip].

Carmelo Anthony (6'8"/220)

Anthony was the most heralded of the group, going #3 overall to Denver after leading Syracuse to the NCAA title. In 2003-04, 'Melo and Andre Miller helped the Nuggets improve from 17-65 to 43-39. He put up a legit 21.5 ppg because he played 36.5 min/g right out of the gate. Overall, Anthony averaged 23 ppg, 6.7 rpg & 3 apg (per 40) as a rookie. At age 20, Anthony's numbers remained nearly identical before his scoring average skyrocketed last season.

As a scorer, Anthony and Durant are very similar due to their tactics pulling up and backing down defenders inside the arc. Durant's three-point shooting is far superior, however. The year of collegiate action that both experienced should allow Durant, like 'Melo to post a higher scoring average right away.

Shawn Marion (6'7"/228)

You won't hear too many comparisons between Marion and Durant, mostly because Marion left college after his junior season. But Marion has always been a quietly outstanding rebounder and Durant certainly has that potential with a few extra inches and similarly long arms. Marion is also the only player in this group to have dropped weight since his college days.

Marion was also drafted ninth, by Phoenix, in 1999. The Suns were already a pretty decent team with Jason Kidd at the helm. The team enjoyed the first of back-to-back 50-win seasons with Marion, then 21, playing 24.7 min/g that season in 51 games. His per-40 averages of 16.5 ppg, 10.5 rpg & 1.7 bpg rose to 19.2/11.9/1.5 in the 2000-01 season. Amazingly, Marion led the entire team in scoring and rebounding as his PT increased to 36.2 min/g. His numbers have remained steady ever since, even though swapping Kidd for Marbury in year three devastated the team until Steve Nash's arrival.

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Durant has a ceiling as high or higher than any of these fellas. He will get major minutes. He will immediately become the face of his new franchise, whether it be Memphis, Boston or some dark horse like Milwaukee or Atlanta. A team like Memphis might need a player like Durant even more than a Greg Oden-type. As Oden "mulls" over his future, Durant's mind is set. He can focus 100% on the task at hand and will no doubt dazzle everyone in sight when he works out for various NBA teams. The longer Oden waits, the better Durant's chances are of snagging that #1 draft position from Gramps.

I see Durant putting up a solid 19-20 ppg while putting on weight as a rook. It's likely that the team he lands on won't be as terrible as their 2006-07 record showed. I appreciate that Bill Simmons is railing on Boston and Milwaukee for tanking, though he took a break today to analyze NBA draft lottery trends on his Basketball Blog. If Durant is drafted by a team with a decent point guard, he could easily see a quantum leap in his numbers like Anthony did. By year three, anything less than 27 ppg & 9 rpg might be a disappointment.

'Can he be a leader' is another topic altogether. Despite sweeping the nation's Player of the Year awards, his Texas teammates did not even vote him a unanimous MVP this season -- he shared the award!

*If you like sports statistics and haven't checked out the Sports-Reference family of websites yet, shame on you. The resources are fantastic. I drew my "per 40 minutes" stats directly from Basketball-Reference.com.