Final Four: Mapping The Rosters

A classic championship game between Kansas and Memphis brought the 2007-08 season to a close in proper fashion last night. The Jayhawks' 75-68 win came in the seventh overtime game in NCAA championship game history. [box score]

When you look back at this tournament a few years from now, Wisconsin's exit will not appear as poor as it seemed at the time. When Davidson hung with the eventual national champion until the final shot, the whole Midwest Region got a boost. If you can't win, you hope the team that beats you was the best in the country. In UW's case, this was close enough. From one angle, you could make an argument--albeit a shaky one--that Wisconsin lost to the second-best team in the tournament this year.

In days leading up to the title game, I started thinking back to a recent New York Times piece on the composition of Wisconsin's roster (thanks to Jon Linder for pointing it out). The map got me thinking both about the direction UW's program is headed and also about what it takes to build a truly elite, NCAA Championship-level squad these days.

Wisconsin has concentrated traditionally on snagging the best players from the state and filling in needed pieces from its midwestern neighbors. Bo Ryan has placed a premium on finding players who will best fit his swing offense and embrace the team concept. It's easy to fill a roster with that kind of players when your legendary head coach has inspired half of the high school coaches in the state to run his system.

I have constructed some player origin maps to show how this type of roster-building strategy appears spatially. Almost every program is going to fill extra roster spots with walk-ons from around the state, so I concentrated on mapping the scholarship athletes. Though we have been able to cherry-pick some talent from Minnesota lately, the 2007-08 roster was still heavily local:

Now look at Monday night's title game match-up. See where Kansas and Memphis are pulling players from? All over. Compare these maps and apparent strategies with Wisconsin's more regional map:

Both school's rosters featured scholarship players from 10 different states this season. Kansas has natural ties to the heartland, but nearly every corner of the country is represented. Memphis' turf seems restricted only to anything east of the Mississippi River. These are two of the nation's premier programs which can basically pick and choose the recruits they want. Similarly, top-flight prospects desire to play for these schools, no matter where they grew up.

The question is, will Bo Ryan change his recruiting. Does he agree with the pessimists that decry a lack of athleticism on his team and feel the need to look outside Wisconsin's borders to find it? More likely is that (1)the recent classes of high school seniors in Wisconsin have been less talented than usual and (2)the Badgers continue to raise their profile nationally in the minds of prep hoop stars.

This fall, five new freshmen will join the Badgers, none of which will be from Wisconsin. The departing senior class this spring consists of four in-state contributors (3 scholarship, 1 walk-on). In just one year, Wisconsin has added three new states to it's recruiting footprint* to up the total to eight. As I mentioned before, this is probably more of a drastic blip than an official trend. If the team keeps winning 30 games a year, though, the opportunities to pick and choose become even greater and more frequent.

*This map assumes 2008 recruit Ryan Evans will occupy Kevin Gullikson's 2008-09 scholarship.

Round 5 (& 6) data

With all the Big Ten teams long-gone and no other 3-seeds left to compare to Wisconsin's run, there is nothing left to track but my pathetic bracket. When North Carolina and UCLA were both eliminated at the Final Four, the debacle was complete.

My picks: 37/63 (58.7%) Round 5 (& 6): 0-3

National Champs, Part Deux

Florida repeated as national champion Monday night, thus cementing its position as one of the greatest college basketball teams of modern times. If nothing else, the '05-'07 Gators are certainly one of the most dominant tournament teams ever. Like 11 teams before them, Ohio State fell victim to Florida flipping the "ON" switch and bringing down a devastating combination of talent and unselfishness upon their helpless victims. America ate it up with a spoon.

I was enjoying several polls on ESPN's SportsNation tonight (check out how much Wisconsin hates Barry Bonds). A plurality of the ESPN web-citizens felt that what's latest is greatest when it comes to NCAA repeaters. I never thought I would defend Duke, but the Devils did upset a truly great team (UNLV) during their first title run in 1991 and bested a ferocious title contender (Kentucky) in their repeat bid in 1992. You can't really say the same for Florida's opponents the past two seasons. To be in the conversation is the honor--one that Florida earned at Monday's final horn.

On the home front, Ohio State's offensive drought during the late first-half run by Florida doomed the Big Ten rep. It's a telling point that Greg Oden posted his most dominant performance of the year, but the Buckeyes still could not mount any charge in the second half. Regardless, Oden needs to flee college ball to gets some real competition.

Ohio State shot a poisonous amount of three-pointers and shot them poorly (props to Big Ten Wonk on his last day). Florida contained Mike Conley Jr. for the most part, allowing Greg Oden to rack up his double-double. Ron Lewis came back to earth. Lee Humphrey did not. End of story.

It would be a truly historical feat to three-peat, not that anyone is holding their breath. At least three Gators are NBA-bound next season, maybe more. The amount of hype that would follow Florida around day-to-day would dwarf that of this year and almost certainly disrupt the amazing harmony the team enjoyed when it really mattered. Egos don't get smaller with two-time defending champions.

Not to mention Humphrey, the NCAA tournament's all-time leader in made three-pointers, is a senior this year. Florida has talent to spare and a sick crop of incoming freshmen, which will ultimately keep Donovan in Gainesville. Yet, even if the juniors returned, the Gators might not even be the preseason No. 1 in the fall with Kansas and North Carolina's thoroughbreds all a year older.

So I'll be saying goodbye to Joakim Noah, Al Horford and Corey Brewer. Unless the Bucks draft one of them (please Larry Harris, say 'no' to Noah).

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Seth Davis continues to disappoint me. A few years ago when Davis made his CBS debut, he seemed well-informed, connected and polished. Now he just gets under my skin belittling the Badgers whenever possible and, apparently, lower his standards. How is rational to be pleased by the ridiculous interview Noah gave following the title game? He talks (looks?) like a special education student. I began referring to Noah as "Kim" a while ago, but with the help of this hilariously disrespectful YouTube video, I can never go back. And as one of Bill Simmons' readers brought to his attention, Noah is actually 22 years old already. He should sound more mature than his peers, not exponentially less mature. But let it be known that he is probably still "doing it up real big" 24 hours after Florida's victory.

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Updates:
- Randolph Morris is averaging 0.5 ppg with 3 DNPs!!
- Iowa hires Butler's Lickliter; Michigan buys out Beilein's contract

Links:
- Arkansas gets screwed/Dana Altman might be whipped
- Central Florida head coach Kirk Speraw is my new hero (YouTube)

One Down, One To Go

The Ohio State-Georgetown game was a virtual pick'em in Vegas and I couldn't have agreed more. My instincts told me to pick the one-point favorite, Georgetown, because of experience, their conference, Jeff Green and the precision of John Thompson III's cutting offense.

I'm still waiting for Green to show up. In terms of leadership, he had an abysmal game, going long stretches in both halves before scoring (or even attempting) his first basket. The junior finished with only five field goal attempts. Inexcusable on Green's part, which Billy Packer correctly harped on, but also on JT3's part. Jim Nantz kept fawning over David Lighty's defense, but c'mon Jimbo. The frosh goes 6'6" and 220 pounds--he didn't quite "lock down" Green, who has three inches and 15-20 pounds of muscle on Lighty.

In the regional finals, Georgetown destroyed North Carolina in crunch time by letting the Tar Heels tire themselves out and clamping down on defense. UNC looked undisciplined on offense once Ty Lawson quit attacking the hoop at breakneck speed. The outside shots were open, but rushed.

Credit Ohio State for gaining control of the game and not relinquishing it. Mike Conley Jr. is just a tad slower than Lawson, but smoother and smarter. He posted his typically stellar line: a team-high 15 points on 58% shooting, with 6 assts, 5 rebs and only one turnover. Plus, his Buckeye teammates were free throw-making, turnover-forcing seniors, not freshmen.

The end of the first half and beginning of the second were the only enjoyable moments of the touted match-up of big men, as foul trouble kept both Roy Hibbert and Greg Oden on the bench for long periods of time. I did see a glimpse of Oden's potential when he received a pass as a trailer entering the wide-open lane and tried to jump over Green for the dunk. Gramps got up; Green got the foul. But the best thing about Oden's brief domination was that Clark Kellogg got to comment on the young sensation during the post-game highlight session.

Kellogg's exact quote:

"Greg Oden made the most of his opportunities in the second half and showed me a little more in his package than expected."

Nice.

Photo/UWBadgers.com

If you stuck around between games, you saw officials from Lowe's present Alando Tucker with this year's Lowe's Senior Class Award. Tucker was sporting a brand new shirt with some sort of savanna camouflage design. The presentation and acceptance speeches were equally hilarious. Unintentionally.

BTW, I think UCLA beats Florida. So bet on Florida and the BCS rematch.